“All of the tables have been sanitised, although the chance of catching Covid-19 from surfaces remains very low. The pub is table service only, and nobody can sit at the bar. He sits down and takes off his mask. Every five seconds he exhales.”
“Each breath contains roughly 800 millilitres of air and 1,000 copies of the virus.
An hour later he has exhaled 720,000 copies of the virus.
“The pub, which measures 10m x 10m x 3m, contains 300 cubic metres of air.”
“With no windows open and no ventilation, the virus gradually fills the room. Within an hour, each cubic metre contains roughly 2,400 copies of the virus.
As the evening progresses, the number of punters grows. There are now 46 people in the pub:
“40 customers and six members of staff. Two thirds have high levels of immunity, either from being vaccinated or having caught Covid-19 in the past.
After an hour, let's assume 17 people have caught the virus.
“Of the two people sitting at the same table, one is vaccinated and does not become infected, but the other receives the highest viral load and is the first to become infected.
The hospitality trade knows there are many ways of making indoor dining and drinking safer
“If one large window is opened, depending on wind speed and temperature inside and outside the pub, the air in the room is replaced three times an hour. After 60 minutes 14 people are infected, compared to 17 when all windows are closed. Those sitting next to the windows are safe
“If two windows are opened on opposite sides of the room, allowing a light breeze to flow through, the air is replaced 15 times an hour. Only six people are infected. Studies show that only one case of Covid-19 in every 1,000 is contracted outdoors.
“If the infected man sits outside, nobody is infected.”
But, of course, he does not know he is infected….and nor do those who catch it when there..and off they all go on public transport, to shared homes, offices, clubs, bars, weddings and funerals.
The cold season is coming up. Open windows and doors become less appealing.
But there are technological solutions such as heat recover ventilation, extracting used air and sending back fresh air via a heat exchanger, warming it up it the process.
Having high standards for ventilation would also improve conditions to prevent other airborne diseases and reduce damp and mould.
We know overcrowding and deprivation have led to markedly worse outcomes for people working and living in such spaces.
hearty says that in some institutional housing the R rate has been 10-15!
One person leading to 10-15 more infections.
If they wanted a 3 word slogan then it would have been far better for it to have been
Ventilate! Ventilate! Ventilate!
Instead we see MPs crowding into the House of Commons with most on the Conservative benches unmasked. And the Speakers
One present had Covid last week
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The government ignored the EU Commission papers on the topic which identified in detail what risks existed to energy supply & balancing. It is almost as if the Government thought they could just fix issues as they ‘cropped up’ after the amateurish leaving agreement.
Guess what
They did not actually have the agility or energy to do the necessary grunt work.
Troll farms—professionalized groups that work in a coordinated fashion to post provocative content, often propaganda, to social networks—were still building massive audiences by running networks of Facebook pages.
Their content was reaching 140 million US users per month—75% of whom had never followed any of the pages. They were seeing the content because Facebook’s content-recommendation system had pushed it into their news feeds.
The implications of this suggest that Covid likely to keep adapting to become fitter, thus suggesting that continuing close genomic monitoring and vaccinations updates are likely to be needed (as with ‘flu) to keep pace with the evolution of Covid.
The timing of the Nov 2020 paper suggesting there was NO evidence of increased transmissibility from current mutations of the virus caught my attention given we NOW know the virus WAS successfully adapting to become more transmissible both with the ALPHA and now DELTA variants
“Compared with full compliers, there was clear evidence that frequent compliers have lower confidence in government, lower empathy, and a greater external locus of control, are younger, more risk taking, have lower trait openness…
“ are less conscientious and are less likely to have been self- isolating at first data collection or have a long-term condition.”
293 papers reviewed in this meta analysis revealing marked heterogeneity among studies in terms of time frame & duration of observation, definitions of complications, & means of their ascertainment, precluding data synthesis & estimation of the incidence of reported complications
Is there a Conservative ‘blue wall’? - Prof Curtice
Both Labour & Lib Dems advanced most strongly in those seats where Remain had been well ahead, while both parties recorded their weakest performances in constituencies that had strong Leave majorities onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ne…
In constituencies where over 60% voted Remain support for the Tories was 5 points lower in 2019 than it had been 4 years before, whereas in seats where the Leave vote was over 60%, support for the Tories was up 16 points in 2019
But just 20 Remain seats are held by the Tories
In fact since the 2019 election now more than half (11) of the most pro remain Tory seats are already in opposition hands - 6 Labour, 5 Lib Dems
But Tories held 66 Pro Remain seats in the 2019 election
Of two thirds of them can be captured that would lose the Tories their hold