If Macron wins a second term, he should reboot his foreign policy. All his foreign policy ambitions have run into deep trouble:
- to pacify the Sahel, namely Mali;
- to become America's key European partner on eye level;
- to reset relations with Russia;
- to become Europe's leader on strategic affairs;
- to reassert French (independent) power in the Indo-Pacific
- to become America's key European partner on eye level;
- to reset relations with Russia;
- to become Europe's leader on strategic affairs;
- to reassert French (independent) power in the Indo-Pacific
Interesting to note that French and German foreign policies both seem to have reached a dead end at the same time. Both are, as the UK does, struggling to find a new role in a new era of competition; and all three tend to move towards their traditional comfort zone.
The German comfort zone is to focus on internal affairs, namely the fair distribution of wealth, which is what has dominated the German election campaign, especially the "triells" between the three candidates.
The foreign policy that emerges from this is a lame attempt to keep the status quo "liberal order" alive, and an energetic attempt to make sure the German economic/export machine continues to produce the wealth that can be distributed, in order to keep the social peace.
The French foreign policy that emerges from this is, I see it, an attempt to pursue an independent course (independent from the US) in order to keep France among the leading global powers, sitting on the table with the big guys.
The British foreign policy is aimed at getting the role of the best friend and partner of the US, and to do things in the world jointly, exactly like what we see now with Aukus. Power does not come from opposition to the US but from being "Greece to Rome", close to superpower.
The bigger picture is that we enter a new era. "Democratic enlargement", coupled with "war on terror", both aimed at bringing more countries into the zone of liberal order, seems to give way to a new competition with China, both systemic and on the level of power/domination.
While the US and China have clarified their positions, the rest of the world is trying to find their role in this new environment.
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