Thread by @gmbutts

Off to Toronto this morning for @CBCNews #Elxn44 coverage. Send snacks. It’s going to be a long night — probably a long week. Why? 👇👇👇1/

The latest @ElectionsCan_E update is that just over 777k voting kits have been returned by people voting by mail in their home riding. Another 125k have been returned by people who are in Canada, but currently out of their home riding. 2/ #Elxn44

elections.ca/content2.aspx?…

Mail-in ballot counting probably takes a few days because they can’t be counted until after the polls close tonight. Why? Because @ElectionsCan_E has to make sure people who mail ballots didn’t also vote in person. Vote early, not often! Rules here. 👇👇 elections.ca/content2.aspx?…

Here’s the 🔑 point. With that number of people voting by mail, I’m estimating that somewhere between 40-50 ridings will receive a number of mail-in ballots that’s larger than that riding’s 2019 margin of victory. 2019 was close. 2021 is probably closer. #Elxn44

So hold onto your hats folks. If the polls are even close to correct, there’s a great chance we will not know who won the election tonight. Because math. #Elxn44

Oh, one last thing. I’m off to New York tomorrow for work. So enjoy the ride. I hope and trust the @ElectionsCan_E office in Ottawa — where all main-in ballots are counted — is ready for a long week. Thank them in advance and 🙏 for them if you’re so inclined. #Elxn44

Oops. Missed a key word there all *international* mail in ballots. Riding level mail ins are counted at the local level. Sorry, early tweeting before enough ☕️. Thanks for the (multiple) corrections. #Elxn44