I think the conflict with China is stupid and I'd be glad if we stayed out of it, so I don't care that France was excluded from the regional security partnership between the US and Australia, what pisses me off is that this betrayal won't fundamentally affect our foreign policy.
That's why the French government's histrionics at the moment are so embarrassing. There is no point in putting on that show if, in the end, you just go back to business as usual, which is almost certainly what's going to happen. Draw some concrete lessons or shut the fuck up.
The truth is that we have aligned ourselves with the US against our interests time and time again and we're going to continue to do so even after our so-called allies have openly fucked us. I hope that I'm being too pessimistic about this, but I seriously doubt it.
There will be the usual noise about how this shows we need the EU to become strategically independent from the US, which of course is never going to happen, if only because most member states are perfectly happy to live under the American umbrella and don't want responsibilities.
This is just the usual nonsense, but when the dust has settled, we'll go back to follow the US lead in their absurd cold wars against Russia and China (among other things), even though it's contrary to our interests, and if you ask me isn't even in the interests of the US 🤷‍♂️
I basically agree with that, the arguments that it made sense *from an anti-China hawk's perspective* to exclude France are just embarrassing (again that's not my perspective), but it still won't be enough for us to truly rethink our foreign policy.
I would leave NATO, an organization that has long lost its raison d'être, push for the end of commercial sanctions against Russia by the EU and generally make clear that from now France would be happy to partner with the US but only when in our interests.
Don't even get me started about the arguments in favor of NATO's continued existence. It's all post-hoc rationalization, premised on ridiculous ideas such as the notion that, if not for NATO, Russia might invade EU members. Anyone who seriously believes that is beyond salvation.

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More from @phl43

17 Sep
I must have missed the part where Russia pretended to be our ally, only to snatch a multi-billion dollars contract that was already signed from us and exclude us from the new regional security partnership that resulted from the steal, but it could also be that I have a brain 🤷‍♂️
People actually pay this guy, probably a lot, to explain international politics to them. No wonder we keep doing stupid shit when this is the kind of moron that passes as an "expert" these days.
Lmao, the sophisticates spent the entire Trump's presidency whining about how he was destroying the US relationship with your allies, but now Biden is openly fucking us and this guy is like "how come you didn't recall your ambassador under Orange Man Bad?"
Read 4 tweets
14 Sep
Milley's actions, which objectively border on treason, are cast in a heroic light in this piece, but this passage is pretty revealing about the kind of things he and his friends were *really* afraid of, even though I have no doubt they believe their own bullshit.
From day 1, the military has railroaded Trump into doing the opposite of what he'd pledged to do (greatly helped in that by Trump's own incompetence), effectively subverting the democratic will, but we're supposed to believe they're democracy's saviors 🙃 axios.com/off-the-rails-…
Every time Trump tried to withdraw using the normal channels, they have managed to railroad him (which again is partly Trump's fault but has happened to every other president so it's not just his incompetence), but Milley is shocked when Trump tries to do it behind his back 😂
Read 19 tweets
9 Sep
C'est encore pire que ça : non seulement cette affaire n'entraînera aucune conséquence négative pour Coulmont et Simon, mais vous pouvez être certain que la même chose ne sera pas vraie pour Mignot, qui sera à coup sûr ostracisé par ses collègues. C'est effectivement révoltant.
Cette histoire illustre parfaitement un phénomène très courant dans la recherche : il y a plein de gens dont tout le monde sait pertinemment qu'ils sont intellectuellement malhonnêtes, mais leurs collègues ne disent rien parce que faire des vagues est mauvais pour leur carrière.
C'est d'ailleurs la même chose quand je traite les épidémiologistes de l'Inserm et de l'Institut Pasteur d'escrocs parce qu'ils ne publient pas leur code et qu'ils pondent des trucs dont ils savent très bien qu'ils sont complètement pétés : "ça ne se fait pas" me dit-on.
Read 9 tweets
7 Sep
Has anyone ever considered genetically engineering SARS-CoV-2 to make it super-transmissible but harmless, while still having enough epitopes in common with the natural strains to confer immunity against them? It would effectively be a transmissible vaccine.
To be clear, I doubt we'd actually know how to make it super-transmissible and I can think of many reasons why this could backfire even if we did, it's just a random thought I had so I tweeted it, like I do with most of my random thoughts 🤷‍♂️
Looking forward to having my name in history books for having inspired the program that killed half of mankind by creating a super-transmissible virus that almost immediately mutated to also become super-virulent.
Read 6 tweets
7 Sep
En toute décontraction, nos amis de l'Institut Pasteur sortent de nouvelles projections apocalyptiques, sans même un mot sur le fait que, *comme à chaque fois*, leurs précédentes projections se sont avérées complètement à côté de la plaque 🙃
En fait, non seulement ils n'ont pas un mot pour l'échec de leurs projections du 28 juin, mais le document a manifestement été retiré de l'archive où il avait été déposé... hal-pasteur.archives-ouvertes.fr/pasteur-032726…
Tranquillement, notre grand épidémiologiste prend la réduction de R observée après le confinement et part du principe que l'effet est entièrement causal, alors qu'une réduction similaire a été observée dans plein d'autres endroits sans confinement 🤡
Read 4 tweets
31 Aug
In this post, I explain why people claim that Delta is more than twice as transmissible as the original strain, argue that it doesn't show that and that Delta's transmissibility advantage is probably much smaller. I summarize the main points below 🧵 cspicenter.org/blog/waronscie…
First, I explain what it means when people say that a variant is more transmissible than another, because I think people don't really understand it and you can't interpret the evidence correctly unless you do.
A variant A is more transmissible than a variant B if and only if, *other things being equal*, people infected by A infect more people on average than people infected by B. The "other things being equal" clause is really important here.
Read 33 tweets

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