Thread by @hendry_hugh

Spoke with @ToSsRo today and we're thinking that a different strategy is needed for China. It's amazing that western investors stand charged of trying to buy the dip in Chinese tech rather than considering the possibility that things could actually be bad-ass this time.

This could be it - the sum of all our China fears. A few years ago everyone would be gagging to go short! The move away from free markets PLUS a simultaneous property market swoon. Is this the event that everyone prophesied only to give up waiting for?

Soros reveals his fears - the godfather of macro roars and today's investors yawn ! I bet he's huge short the CNH. This year's RMB rally didn't quite stack up. And then the tic data show 2 consecutive months of o/seas selling of US Ts. This rarely happens. This is 2008 territory

MAR 16 was the last great deval debate. The rate was similar. Then, I didn't see it happening. Texans were proclaiming confidence in a 9 handle. I called this Mad Max World. Today, following the alien body invasion, I aint so sure. Funny how modern life seems lifted from sci-fi.

And all those 5 y CNH 9 strike OTMs reset to zero...funny how only hedge fund managers make money (?) But when o/s Central Bs sell $ assets I'm trained to seek shelter. Wake up? CBs don't support the $, they're beholden to it - its their life blood - and they're running low, low.

And despite the ridicule of Tokyo's 1980s asset bubble, at least they allowed the Y to hugely strengthen; they did insist that the economy had to adjust. Sure the balm was easy credit but the acceptance of a hard currency maybe gave them monetary firepower to take rates to zero?

If CNH had been permitted to trade to a 4 handle via the $ I might go along with the rate cutting rescue effort but here ?? I just don't see what levers they have to resuscitate the thing if events turn transparently soggy. I do note that 5y cash > 5y5y swaps so I'm in minority

But the sales pitch ain't great - invigorated fascist regime intent on rolling back capitalism seeks your patience in their inconvertible fx system as they deal with an over indebted property sector...yeah, where do I sign up ??

And the FT prints an opinion piece from the largest European equity manager and of course they're bullish, "... global investors will probably view the renminbi as both a store of value and a medium of
exchange" This is embarrassing...

Fin Traders should reject the dopamine hit from reading pop fin press; its Disney fairy tales written by kids and its BAD for your wealth. It's all about good things happening to rational people. A basket of prices goes up and voilà good traders make money from inflation hedges.

I'm quoting twitter.com/hashtag/Wonder… these are vicarious bumps of happiness...soon the reality that inflation is a monetary phenomenon beckons and the negativity kicks in. Total YoY bank lending of 6 major US banks is what? I don't know but I bet you get change from 6%

Courage is the chemical response that comes from being scared. I think we're gonna walk on the scary side for awhile.And if you're gonna suffer the trauma of losing money then nothing better than dark lit. Read dark to find the light. Read Oedipus

Inflation is back !! Buy the China dips...No thanks !! I'd rather chill with Hamlet. You'd think I hate the Fin Times but I don't. I should be angry about the grief caused by their nonsense. But instead I feel only love and gratitude. I'm grieving their lack of absurdity.

But thanks to them I feel more comfortable disclosing my emotional vulnerability, they're like my love drugs. Them and the Fed minutes. Do you realise how hopelessly out of touch the Fed were in the weeks before LEH ?? So sure, the Chinese got this Evergrande thing covered.

Remember, I-LOVE-YOU-!

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