I'm afraid I'm here to disclose to everyone that I'm exiting my $BBIG position. I have done some analysis on the proxy, which I was not able to confirm, but has nevertheless convinced me that, at least in the short term, it's too risky for me to continue.
I recently received a series of margin calls which have forced me to decide which stocks I was going to stay in and which ones I was going to have to walk away from, and $BBIG is one of the ones I had to cut loose.
The reason I cut $BBIG loose is because of personal financial reasons in order to protect myself and my own family's stability, which is something I've always advocated for everyone to do.
But now this has become a problem because too many people give my opinion too much weight.
Too often, I miss-time or am wrong on my investments, and perhaps I'm wrong to leave my $BBIG position, but that isn't why I'm disclosing this publicly.
It's because my opinion is given more credit than it is worth, and too many people are leaning on me for the right answers.
Today, I was discussing the proxy statements in a private discord, and I voiced concerns that the statement included some potentially bearish information.
I had said that I did not fully understand the statement and needed confirmation, but someone in that discord...
...decided it would be a good idea to start screenshotting my concerns and begin sharing them outside of the group without context.
It took less than 15 seconds for my momentary uncertainty to turn up on public social media.
And now I know that I need to leave.
I am not a stock market genius, I'm not an analyst, and I'm not a financial advisor. More than anything, I am not a social person.
And if my opinion can move hundreds of people's decision on whether to buy or sell a stock, then the time has come for me to keep it to myself.
This is the end of my $BBIG position, but it's also the end of my attempts to teach people how to make mature, informed investment decisions for themselves, because I realize that 99% of people don't want that.
They want someone to tell them what to do.
I'm not doing that.
I'm not here to be an influencer. I never was.
I don't care about clout, followers, or internet fame.
All that bullshit is meaningless to me, and it's not worth destroying my life over just to have a few pats on the back when I occassionally make the right call.
I want to wish everyone good luck and to continue driving their own financial independence, but from now on, you're going to have to do that without me.
I told everyone that one day I would disappear because I enjoyed my privacy and my personal freedom of anonymity.
I guess it's here a lot sooner than I expected.
I'll still be around. I'll still exist. I'll still complain about how corrupt our system is.
But stock picks and analysis? That's all gone.
Best of luck to everyone. You don't need me to form your own convictions and make your own financial decisions. You can hold strong on your own merits and learn to do your own DD.
Stop using youtuber's and influencers like a crutch. Rely on your own mind and your fellow apes.
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I believe I may have figured out what the market makers are doing with the deep ITM calls.
They're buying and exercising them instantly when delta is close to 1.00.
The premium and purchase of the shares, at those levels.
Market makers are guaranteeing acquisition of shares in order to sell them into the market and dump on the price, but by exercising options, they do not cause ANY change in the price because it is an executed contract.
Meaning... the purchase doesn't go through the exchange...
This is the same situation with ISDA contracts. They're privately exchanged between two parties that agree to shake hands on providing shares through selling of call options to be exercised almost precisely at-cost.
The short entity can then acquire these shares without buying
I know tons of people will and have already said this was the wrong way to do this, but there really wasn't a "right" way to do it, because screenshots of my questions surrounding the proxy were taken without context and shared without my permission. 1/12
Someone took the decision out of my hands because they chose to start taking screenshots of what I thought was a candid, private discussion about the stock, and my attempts to do more DD that I was planning to share with everyone on social media.
2/12
I hasdn't even spent 15 seconds doing my DD before someone took what I said and started sharing it out of context with my name attached to a speculative statement about what I thought the proxy meant, and it started spreading around instantly.
@earvinburnin Sorry that I don't have better screenshots from that time. Back when I was talking about SPRT, I pointed out its call options chain had, combined from $0.50 to $12 strike for 9/17 expiration, a grand total of 200k calls ITM. Back then, this was more than the entire float.
@earvinburnin This doesn't mean that $BBIG can't squeeze, but it does mean that $SPRT's squeeze was tremendously rare. I've never seen a company's entire float ITM in calls before.
Right now $BBIG has 20% of its float ITM right now with another 20% above $12.
@earvinburnin But there is something you should know. More calls were bought in a single week when $SPRT was trading at $12 than in the past 3 months.
Over 100k of those calls were bought only days before it squeezed.
The same thing can happen here if Market Makers are dumb enough twice.
By popular request, here is my research on $ATER short squeeze play per my usual thesis.
Here's the short version... by the numbers, shorts are just now starting to realize... they fucked up.
Ortex data shows shorts got in around Aug 1st @ $9.15 or less (at best)
FTD spikes since then have been consistently happening every T+6 days (sign that market makers are involved)
Institutions piling in.
SI: 68% of FF
19% of FF is ITM in calls
Looks good!
The one piece missing is the short exempts. Short Exempt volume is hovering around 1.5% of short volume, but it's going to likely start showing up soon, if market makers have FTDs outstanding.
Doesn't mean it won't squeeze without the short-exempts going nuts, but I'd like more.
I wanted to give an update on my opinion of $SPRT because I'm getting asked quite a bit.
NFA...
I am still bullish on $SPRT, but at the moment, it's in a consolidation period. The SI of FF is over 86%, and the average short got in around ~$7.15.
They are at a 224% loss.
The problem we currently have is that market makers hedged and either delivered or bought-to-close their ITM options on the chain during the run up when everyone sold their ITM options. The 9/17 call chain only has about 6K calls ITM right now, so not much gamma anymore.
10/15 looks more interesting with 36,232 calls expiring ITM above $23. That's still 18% of the float.
Between the 86% SI and 20% of the float ITM between now and 10/15, $SPRT is still in a supply crisis, and I believe failures to deliver will be astronomical in the coming weeks.
The threshold securities list has proven to become a very lucrative method of picking short squeeze candidates. Combining my short exempt theory with threshold stocks has yielded three picks which show immense squeeze potential due to the FTDs against them.
For those who don't know...
Threshold securities are stocks with more that 0.5% of its outstanding shares in Failures-to-deliver (FTDs)
FTDs are a symptom of naked shorting, as well as institutions who fail to deliver in-the-money call options or lent shares that were recalled
Short exempts are a special tool of market makers (MMs) to take a short while a stock is on Short-sale restriction (SSR) or to short without locating a share to borrow.
These exemptions are intended for MMs to survive periods of massive volatility and frenzy buying.