Thread by @MoriartyLab

Based on the number of Canadians who were completely unvaccinated on Sep 11, 2021, here's how many ICU admissions could still occur if we don't vaccinate faster.

CAN 41,611
AB 6,374
BC 5,881
MB 982
NB 961
NL 388
NWT 60
NS 787
NUV 16
ON 17,703
PEI 65
QC 6,592
SK 1,645
YK 39

As more unvaccinated people in Canada get their first, then second shots, these numbers will go down, but first shots are increasing really slowly in so many Canadian regions.

Estimates were obtained by multiplying numbers of people who remain completely unvaccinated in each age group and region by age-specific rates of ICU admissions from the start of the epidemic in Canada to present, calculated from the @GovCanHealth database by the amazing @JPSoucy

This may be an overestimate, because less serious cases are frequently missed. On the other hand, Delta increases rates of hospitalization and ICU admission. In general, this is intended to help Canadians understand just how many ICU admissions could still occur.

I forgot to do the calculations for kids under 12, and am doing this now. Will add them to the thread in a moment.

Based on number of Canadians who were completely unvaccinated on Sep 11, 2021, here's how many ICU admissions could still occur in each age group if we don't vaccinate faster.

0-17: 2,400
18-29: 1,700
30-39: 3,700
40-49: 5,000
50-59: 11,500
60-69: 12,300
70-79: 5,900
80+: 1,400

Based on number of ALBERTA RESIDENTS who were unvaccinated on Sep 11, 2021, here's how many ICU admissions could still occur in each age group if we don't vaccinate faster.

0-17: 339
18-29: 274
30-39: 692
40-49: 864
50-59: 1,536
60-69: 1,682
70-79: 1,021
80+: 262

Based on number of BRITISH COLUMBIA RESIDENTS who were unvaccinated on Sep 11, 2021, here's how many ICU admissions could still occur in each age group if we don't vaccinate faster.

0-17: 285
18-29: 187
30-39: 402
40-49: 607
50-59: 1,789
60-69: 2,111
70-79: 718
80+: 40

Based on number of MANITOBA RESIDENTS who were unvaccinated on Sep 11, 2021, here's how many ICU admissions could still occur in each age group if we don't vaccinate faster.

0-17: 107
18-29: 57
30-39: 130
40-49: 153
50-59: 360
60-69: 252
70-79: 18
80+: 0

Based on number of NEW BRUNSWICK RESIDENTS who were unvaccinated on Sep 11, 2021, here's how many ICU admissions could still occur in each age group if we don't vaccinate faster.

0-17: 45
18-29: 30
30-39: 71
40-49: 111
50-59: 252
60-69: 296
70-79: 153
80+: 45

Based on number of NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR RESIDENTS who were unvaccinated on Sep 11, 2021, here's how many ICU admissions could still occur in each age group if we don't vaccinate faster.

0-17: 26
18-29: 17
30-39: 31
40-49: 52
50-59: 135
60-69: 144
70-79: 0
80+: 0

Based on number of NORTHWEST TERRITORIES RESIDENTS who were unvaccinated on Sep 11, 2021, here's how many ICU admissions could still occur in each age group if we don't vaccinate faster.

0-17: 4
18-29: 3
30-39: 5
40-49: 8
50-59: 23
60-69: 20
70-79: 0
80+: 0

Based on number of NOVA SCOTIA RESIDENTS who were unvaccinated on Sep 11, 2021, here's how many ICU admissions could still occur in each age group if we don't vaccinate faster.

0-17: 54
18-29: 41
30-39: 72
40-49: 104
50-59: 250
60-69: 220
70-79: 79
80+: 16

Based on number of NUNAVUT RESIDENTS who were unvaccinated on Sep 11, 2021, here's how many ICU admissions could still occur in each age group if we don't vaccinate faster.

0-17: 4
18-29: 2
30-39: 4
40-49: 4
50-59: 4
60-69: 0
70-79: 0
80+: 1

Based on number of ONTARIO RESIDENTS who were unvaccinated on Sep 11, 2021, here's how many ICU admissions could still occur in each age group if we don't vaccinate faster.

0-17: 895
18-29: 696
30-39: 1,362
40-49: 1,883
50-59: 4,123
60-69: 4,825
70-79: 3,666
80+: 1,069

Based on number of PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND RESIDENTS who were unvaccinated on Sep 11, 2021, here's how many ICU admissions could still occur in each age group if we don't vaccinate faster.

0-17: 9
18-29: 5
30-39: 7
40-49: 14
50-59: 27
60-69: 8
70-79: 2
80+: 1

Based on number of QUEBEC RESIDENTS who were unvaccinated on Sep 11, 2021, here's how many ICU admissions could still occur in each age group if we don't vaccinate faster.

0-17: 522
18-29: 340
30-39: 709
40-49: 919
50-59: 2,529
60-69: 1,916
70-79: 151
80+: 0

Based on number of SASKATCHEWAN RESIDENTS who were unvaccinated on Sep 11, 2021, here's how many ICU admissions could still occur in each age group if we don't vaccinate faster.

0-17: 96
18-29: 72
30-39: 167
40-49: 193
50-59: 434
60-69: 472
70-79: 232
80+: 62

Based on number of YUKON RESIDENTS who were unvaccinated on Sep 11, 2021, here's how many ICU admissions could still occur in each age group if we don't vaccinate faster.

0-17: 3
18-29: 1
30-39: 2
40-49: 5
50-59: 15
60-69: 16
70-79: 0
80+: 1

As ALWAYS, these are back of the envelope estimates of the impact of COVID-19 that we could still see in Canada.

All vaccines authorized in Canada provide excellent protection against serious illness and death. They reduce but don't eliminate transmission.

Vaccines are not the only protective measure--we have to keep spread low and slow till everyone is vaxxed.

But we really need everyone to get vaxxed. We need our hospital capacity for the ~5% of people the vaccines don't protect from serious illness. And for non-COVID illness.

I don't think most Canadians understand the shear scale of the problem that still remains. We've been brought to our knees by 5-10% of the population getting infected with SARS-CoV-2.

25% of us still have not had a single shot. Think about that, then help someone get vaccinated.

I am very slowly doing estimates like this for individual health regions in each province, if I can find appropriate data.

Below I'll provide data for ON. Over the next week or so I'll try to assemble these data for other provinces, then finally get all of this up on a website.

Based on the number of Ontario residents who were completely unvaccinated on Sep 11, 2021, here are how many vaccine-preventable deaths and ICU admissions could still occur in each public health unit if we don't vaccinate faster.

Algoma 70 deaths, 111 ICU
Brant 39 deaths, 147 ICU
Chatham-Kent 31 deaths, 118 ICU
Durham 278 deaths, 761 ICU
Eastern Ontario 75 deaths, 196 ICU
Grey-Bruce 194 deaths, 222 ICU
Haldimand-Norfolk 68 deaths, 147 ICU
Haliburton 217 deaths, 258 ICU
Halton 208 deaths, 547 ICU

Hamilton 381 deaths, 818 ICU
Hastings-Prince Edward 85 deaths, 181 ICU
Huron-Perth 18 deaths, 85 ICU
Kingston (KFLA) 33 deaths, 154 ICU
Lambton 192 deaths, 247 ICU
Leeds Grenville Lanark 19 deaths, 83 ICU
Middlesex-London 186 deaths, 518 ICU
Niagara 253 deaths, 553 ICU

North Bay-Parry Sound 64 deaths, 172 ICU
Northwestern 107 deaths, 128 ICU
Ottawa 228 deaths, 736 ICU
Peel 1,379 deaths, 2,408 ICU
Peterborough 61 deaths, 153 ICU
Porcupine 29 deaths, 98 ICU
Renfrew 69 deaths, 109 ICU
Simcoe-Muskoka 214 deaths, 668 ICU

Southwestern 102 deaths, 182 ICU
Sudbury 75 deaths, 234 ICU
Thunder Bay 32 deaths, 113 ICU
Timiskaming 22 deaths, 51 ICU
Toronto 3,519 deaths, 3,955 ICU
Waterloo 240 deaths, 638 ICU
Wellington 84 deaths, 273 ICU
Windsor-Essex 272 deaths, 545 ICU
York 727 deaths, 1,653 ICU