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Tara Moriarty Profile picture
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18 Sep, 18 tweets, 9 min read
Good morning

This week's Canadian #COVID19 vaccination and death projections,

including estimated dates when C19 deaths will fall below age-specific mortality rates for flu

Based on @GovCanHealth data to Sep 11

🧵 Image
@GovCanHealth 1. Rates of full vaccination: Sep 11, 2021

2. Estimated lives saved by vaccination: Sep 11, 2021

COVID-19 vaccination has saved an estimated 430,000 Canadian lives to date.

We still have another 37,000 left to save. Image
@GovCanHealth 3. Weekly increase in % population fully vaccinated: Sep 4-11, 2021

4. Estimated dates when 100% of population will be fully vaccinated Image
@GovCanHealth LIVES STILL LEFT TO SAVE as of Sep 11, 2021

5. Estimated vaccine-preventable deaths in remaining not fully vaccinated population

6. Vaccine-preventable deaths/100,000 people*

*YELLOW: age-specific influenza mortality rates, for comparison Image
@GovCanHealth Estimates: Oct 9, 2021 Image
@GovCanHealth Estimates: Nov 6, 2021 Image
@GovCanHealth Estimates: Dec 4, 2021 Image
@GovCanHealth Estimates: Jan 1, 2022 Image
@GovCanHealth Estimates: Jan 29, 2022 Image
@GovCanHealth Estimates: Feb 26, 2022 Image
@GovCanHealth Estimates: Mar 26, 2022 Image
@GovCanHealth Estimates: Apr 23, 2022 Image
@GovCanHealth Estimates: May 21, 2022 Image
@GovCanHealth Estimates: June 18, 2022 Image
@GovCanHealth Estimates: July 16, 2022 Image
@GovCanHealth Estimates: Aug 13, 2022 Image
@GovCanHealth Estimates: Sep 10, 2022 Image
@GovCanHealth Note: Estimates for future months are what may occur if the weekly increase in % of each age group vaccinated remains the same as it was from Sep 4-11, 2021.

These ESTIMATES are intended to show why it's urgent that vaccination speeds up in certain age groups and regions. Image

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More from @MoriartyLab

Tara Moriarty Profile picture
20 Sep
@BilasHeidi @GermHunterMD @DorisGrinspun I agree, Ilan. Outside Quebec, and maybe Manitoba, no province appears to be accurately identifying their COVID deaths either. The best we'll get will be excess all-cause mortality. And there is specific cause of death reporting.
@BilasHeidi @GermHunterMD @DorisGrinspun The problem is that in multiple provinces, particularly those out west, we don't even know how many people died until 18-24 months after the deaths. We won't be able to estimate the toll of the current wave in Alberta likely until 2023.
@BilasHeidi @GermHunterMD @DorisGrinspun Canada is the only high income OECD country that doesn't legally require deaths to be reported nationally no later than 1 week after they have occurred. There appears to be little interest in this on the part of many provinces.
Read 12 tweets
Tara Moriarty Profile picture
18 Sep
There's been quite a concerning vaccination gap emerging for Canadian men (undervaccinated) compared to women, with about 1 million fewer men fully vaccinated than women.

The good news this week is that first and second shot rates for men are clearly speeding up.
Here are the rates of full vaccination for Canadian men, women, girls, boys

12-17: 70.2% (M), 71.6% (F)
18-29: 62.3% (M), 70.0 (F)
30-39: 68.4% (M), 73.8% (F)
40-49: 75.4% (M), 80.0% (F)
50-59: 79.2% (M), 82.9% (F)
60-69: 88.4% (M), 90.1% (F)
70+: M, F similar (>93%) Image
Here's the graph for partial vaccination, from @GovCanHealth .

You can see that more men than women are now getting their first shots, in all age groups except people 70+.

This is good news. Image
Read 7 tweets
Tara Moriarty Profile picture
14 Sep
For example, see here hospitalizations/100K for Saskatchewan compared to Alberta (far right column).

These data are from @covid_canada Tracker.

SK is in worse shape for hospitalization than Alberta, with a lot fewer healthcare resources.
And here is the rate of full vaccination in Saskatchewan compared to Alberta and other Canadian regions.

The only region worse is Nunavut, which has major challenges with access due to its remote location.
Actives cases/100K are as high in Saskatchewan as in Alberta (look at the colour on this map from @covid_canada, not the numbers, which are total active cases in each province).

The preceding map was from @GovCanHealth
Read 7 tweets
Tara Moriarty Profile picture
12 Sep
Have YOU helped someone get vaccinated?

Please tell other Canadians your stories here.

We need to hear THESE stories. Not the folks being exploited by white supremacy movements to sow social disruption.

I'm sick of being told we're powerless. We're not. I'm not. You're not.
@drbrignall and friends/colleagues are helping people get vaccinated. How many lives do you think you may have saved by doing this?
Read 5 tweets
Tara Moriarty Profile picture
12 Sep
If you want to do this and don't know where to start, @COVID_19_Canada can help.

We do evening drop-in Vaccine Q&A Zoom sessions (link below).

You can join to discuss strategies to help people you love get vaccinated. It's free. It's anonymous. We're there to support, not judge
@COVID_19_Canada Here's the link to join the drop-in evening sessions or request a special, scheduled session for 20 or more people.

If you're part of a neighbourhood group that wants to make a difference, we can help.

covid19resources.ca/public/vaccine…
@COVID_19_Canada We run drop-in sessions two nights/week, and will scale these up if there's need for more.

If you get stuck in your one-on-one conversations with others about vaccination, you can always drop in to get new ideas, even if the people you care about don't want to.
Read 4 tweets
Tara Moriarty Profile picture
12 Sep
Canadians,

We have to STOP this narrative that people who aren't yet fully vaccinated are vaccine-refusers.

It distracts from other big, underlying problems.

As of Sep 4, 1.8M people 60+ aren't fully vaxxed. There is no refusal in this group. Only fear and/or access problems.
Where do these vulnerable people live?

ON 380K
BC 139K
AB 119K
QC 113K
SK 33K
NB 22K
NS 20K
MB 15K
NL 13K
PEI 2K
NUV, NWT, YK <1K
As of Sep 4, 322K people 70+ aren't fully vaxxed. There is no refusal in this group. Only fear and/or access problems.

Where?

ON 168K
BC 45K
AB 44K
QC 23K
SK 12K
NB 8K
NS 7K
NL 3K
MB 2K
NUV, NWT, PEI, YK <1K

This is NOT vaccine refusal. People need support, not judgement.
Read 31 tweets

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