Thread:
CPC gains in the provinces of ON and BC didn’t translate into seats into the GTA and GVR.
To investigate this, I sliced the electoral map against some demographic values. Two values jumped out at me: visible minorities (generally) and ethnic Chinese. #elxn44 #cdnpoli
CPC gains in the provinces of ON and BC didn’t translate into seats into the GTA and GVR.
To investigate this, I sliced the electoral map against some demographic values. Two values jumped out at me: visible minorities (generally) and ethnic Chinese. #elxn44 #cdnpoli
1. Here are maps of GVR and the GTA with ridings shaded by percent VM population: 
2. And then here are maps of the ridings with the raw numbers of ethnic Chinese voters:
3. While local races have all sorts of complex factors, some pollsters were confused why places like King Vaughan flipped blue while Bob Saroya in Unionville lost his seat. This is quite neatly explained by the concentration of the ethnic Chinese population.
4. The CPC made a conscious choice to campaign against China (particularly the Communist Party), and as a result it suffered electoral defeats in ridings get had a larger proportion of Chinese voters.
5. We know that the Chinese government participates in influence activities overseas. Here are a few links of interest:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Fr…
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Fr…
8. The CPC was playing with fire in its choice to campaign against the Chinese Government. Many are concerned with the Chinese Government and its activities, however, adopting this strategy also inflames ethnic tensions…
9. In the case of this election, it probably cost the party a dozen seats.
Our overwhelmingly white journalists don’t do a good job covering the shadow campaigns that occur in ethnic media. All sorts of misinformation is peddled in Punjabi, on WeChat, WhatsApp, FB, and Signal.
Our overwhelmingly white journalists don’t do a good job covering the shadow campaigns that occur in ethnic media. All sorts of misinformation is peddled in Punjabi, on WeChat, WhatsApp, FB, and Signal.
10. As well, pollsters do a disservice to our public debate by failing to poll on visible minority populations and in ethnic languages.
As far as I know, only @quito_maggi and @Counselpa released polling results on visible minorities. Imo this is a disservice.
As far as I know, only @quito_maggi and @Counselpa released polling results on visible minorities. Imo this is a disservice.
11. Public pollsters should poll and release data on the voting intentions of ethnic minorities. Our public discourse is poorer because pollsters never release political vote intention information on the ethnic minority vote.
12. In this election in particular, knowing how VM populations were planning on voting could have substantially impacted our political discourse, but we don’t ask these questions for some reason.
13. Instead, we decided that age, sex, income, and education were the only cleavages worth talking about. Why not religiosity? Why not race? You had pollsters talk about vaccine hesitancy among those who had lower education, and as a result we spent all election talking about…
14. …how antivaxxers were overconcentrated among the less educated. Would the conversation have been different had pollsters found out that perhaps it was visible minorities those who are more vaxx hesitant? Would the Liberals have been so eager to push on that wedge?
15. Unfortunately we won’t find out because of the lack of demo data being fed to the press by pollsters. Maybe parties know, but the general public certainly doesn’t. Maybe it’s worth having that conversation! Fin.
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