Thread by @punk6529

1/ Mini-thread

My hypothesis

The biggest current NFT collections are going to be bigger than all but a handful of any NFT collections that are going to be put together by the "TradArt" collectors incoming.

Why?

2/ There are multiple collections with market value today of $50M to $100M. Some of them even more maybe.

But for the purposes of this example, let's use $50M to $100M as a range.

How many TradArt billionaires are going to be ready to put $50M to $100M into NFTs today?

3/ My guess is "not very many". Keep in mind that most billionaires are illiquid. When you read that XYZ is worth $2B or $5B or $10B, do not imagine that this money is sitting in a bank account.

It is in stocks, bonds, partnership interests in funds, stock of private companies

3/ Let's say someone is worth $1B to take an 'entry level' billionaire and let's further assume they are 10% liquid (optimistic).

That is $100M. Will that person put $50M to $100M (50% to 100% of their liquidity) into NFTs?

LOL of course not, unless giga-ape (very unlikely)

4/ Even for a $5B-aire, with a few hundred millions of liquidity, chadding $100M of cold hard cash into JPGs in Sept 2021, well that is a bold call

Given that most are, umm, more mature in years, it is asking a mega mental leap to vaporize $100M of IRL wealth into JPGs

5/ Well, ok 6529, in a year it will be more validated and they will have an easier time doing so.

Sure, that is true. But also the prices might be up 2x or 5x (not financial advice obviously, just an example).

At which point you are asking the $1B-aire to invest $200M to $500M

6/ So my hot take here is that a substantial percentage of the mega OG collections have already been built by individuals and DAOs.

TradArt will add X additional collections, but it is not like they will add 95% of the future collections. Maybe 30-50%.

7/ Will TradArt buy individual expensive pieces? Yes

Will a super-billionaire put together a $200M collection? Yes

Will some nation-state make a $1B collection? Yes

But a much larger % than most think of the mega collections that will be made are already in existence today

8/ This thought did not occur to me until last week and it was trigged by a throw-away comment by @ac_collecting, but I think it is right.

Everyone is very excited about TradArt showing up and we welcome them to come.

But a lot of the major NFT stewards will be crypto-native

9/ We are already seeing that in hyper elite pieces - aliens, apes, grail fidenzas, grail squiggles, etc.

Very few are trading because buyers have not caught up with seller price expectations.

Multiple big offers have been rejected.

What will happen next?

10/ Well either the offers will go up and the grail end will re-rate or the buyers with their current buying budget will go down the spectrum a tiny bit and go for super-grails, not hyper-grails which *will* trade for these types of bids.

11/ This is the bull market case ofc.

Perhaps crypto and NFTs nuke and there are big buying opportunities for TradArt to swoop in.

But I don't think this is how it will go, because if it nukes, they will get more cautious, not less cautious and will miss again. :)

11/ It is a bullish tweetstorm about the high end of the market.

I am saying TradArt will not be able to afford all your bags, just a few 😉

https://twitter.com/Barthazian/status/1440655982212706313

12/ I think this below is the key part.

Crypto-native folks are going to be comfortable putting a much higher % of their net worth in NFT than "30 years collecting TradArt collector"

https://twitter.com/unicornparad1se/status/1440657350436667401