While his appr rating might be bottoming (Gallup today at 43%, so we'll see), his disappr keeps making new highs.
In a polarized world where the vast majority will never chg their opinion (either way), this is a big move and only about 2% higher than Trump on election day.
2/4
Rs are saying "Ds, you do it"
Biden is going have to use his political capital to get Ds to pass spending/debt ceiling.
Again, see Biden's approval/disapproval chart above ... what political capital? It seems to be disappearing by the day.
Why is this important, because a never ending stream of Wall Street Pundits on financial TV confidently saying the spending bill will be passed and the debt ceiling will be raised. Assumed in these comments is all this will happen without any drama.
Are we sure?
4/4
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
It's not what a default means for China. Rather it's what happened to China to cause a default.
Start with this chart. Economists are hacking China growth forecasts, and the downgrades are accelerating.
1/5
These downgrades are consistent with the Economic Strength Indices (ESI) compiled by our colleagues at @DataArbor . They measure incoming economic data versus its 1-year average.
China’s ESI has been falling and recently turned negative.
2/5
Currently, China (orange) is the only large economy with an ESI below zero.
Gensler is a career bureaucrat, nothing more, nothing less.
That means he gets important positions of power and he gets to be in the room when the policy is formulated, and offer his opinion, and it will be seriously considered.
2/3
But when the policy is made (read: Yellen decides) Gensler is to prostitute to the full force of his office/reputation to sell it. And sell it like he means it!
Otherwise, they will find another bureaucrat and he can go back to MIT.
The democrats have the presidency and the majority in the House and the tie-breaking vote in the Senate (50/50, VP breaks ties).
They do not need a single republican vote to raise the debt ceiling.
2/6
So what is Yellen worrying about?
Could it be that Biden is losing political cloud?
As this chart shows, and I have mentioned in previous tweets, we are a very polarized country. No one ever changes their opinion (for or against). So a move of this size is significant. 3/6
A thread about transitory vs persistent inflation and why persistent might be actually be winning.
This comes from @economics And it breaks down CPI by reopening and non-reopening components.
Of the 5.25% inflation rate in the last year, only 1.62% was reopening components.
1/6
Breaking it down for August we find that reopening CPI components (or transitory inflation) FELL by 0.22% while CPI non-reopening components (or persistent inflation) ROSE by 0.35%
2/6
Detailing this we find that CPI non-reopening (persistent) components are surging to its highest monthly level since at least 2016.
Restated, this series of persistent inflation is trending higher, and is 78% of overall CPI.
Maybe this chart is making Manchin worry about blindly following the leader of his party.
Recall that we are a very polarized country. The vast majority of the country will NEVER change its opinion about a President (for or against). So this is a big move.
2/5
How bad is this for Biden. This chart shows Biden's approval rating decline since July 9 (his recent peak) after the COVID turned higher and Afghanistan vs Trump's Nov 11 peak, after the Election and the Jan 6th protest.