So can we put the epochal historical turning point of the month to bed now?
https://twitter.com/ErikBrattberg/status/1440713886085177346
There are gradual trends towards a greater US shift to Asia as well as greater strategic autonomy in Europe built around the EU. With some focus in DC, Brussels and EU states on the basics of alliance management this process can play out without destabilising outcomes
But these trends are not going to flip everything overnight. The US pivot to Asia has been more or less on for three decades while the consolidation of EU power in Europe has been playing out since 1992. Too much frenzy over the events of the day, not enough focus on longue duree
From the European perspective, more realism in Paris and London about limitations of European influence in the Indo-Pacific could lead to more sustainable policy in the region.
The strategic centre of gravity of every European state will always be around the EU's neighbourhood
The strategic centre of gravity of every European state will always be around the EU's neighbourhood
From the US perspective, a hollowed out State Department needs to be repaired if the US wants to keep the day to day routine effort going that you need for stable alliance management.
As US relative power declines it has less and less leeway to take allies for granted
As US relative power declines it has less and less leeway to take allies for granted
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