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Alexander Clarkson Profile picture
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23 Sep, 4 tweets, 2 min read
The oddities around rules of origin related to the car industry mentioned here have roots in the Auto Pact negotiated between Pearson and LBJ in the mid-1960s. Just shows how much functioning trade deals build on long histories of economic integration
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada%E2…
That's a key reason why the pitch from the UK government about joining USMCA was so ridiculous. It showed a degree of ignorance about historical specificities of trade integration between the US, Canada and Mexico that underpin their relationship which UK would have to adjust to
They're not mad if you place them in a North American historical context about how cross-border supply chains evolved since the 1920s. Structures the UK has little connection with and which would require fundamental remodelling of the UK economy
You may not be interested in the longue duree but the longue duree is interested in you

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More from @APHClarkson

Alexander Clarkson Profile picture
24 Sep
"Why petrol shortages prove that Global Britain is back"
I can imagine something close to that in the Telegraph, Sun, Mail, Express, Spectator or Spiked
"Why Woke Remainers who Need Food Don't Understand Red Wall Voters"
Read 10 tweets
Alexander Clarkson Profile picture
24 Sep
Again predictable, predicted etc etc
inews.co.uk/news/hgv-short… Image
If you want migrant as well as domestic workers to do a job and stay in the job if they're doing it, you need to offer them decent pay and conditions.
Differentiating between migrant and domestic workers misses the point. If you can't get domestic workers, and migrants move to another job the moment they get a chance, you still have shortages
Read 4 tweets
Alexander Clarkson Profile picture
24 Sep
That's the key difference to 1978 or the fuel crisis of 2000. In both cases the supply chain could get up again because the drivers and workers were in place in sufficient numbers to shift goods around the economy. The UK now needs to find workers that may go to the EU instead
Alleviating the supply chain crisis in the UK requires fundamental structural change to UK political and economic life. It involves improved conditions to attract domestic workers and fostering a state welcoming culture to attract needed migrants who can go elsewhere in Europe
Brexit is one of several factors exacerbating structural shifts in the UK economy that have been building for a decade. But anti-migrant political culture severely exacerbated by Brexit debate is a key barrier to policy needed to sustain the UK economy in times of labour shortage
Read 5 tweets
Alexander Clarkson Profile picture
23 Sep
The sound of someone backing themselves into a corner with no way out
So we're at a point where Johnson either triggers Article 16 or Frost's credibility is so blown he has to resign
If Frost is forced to walk, he can then claim that Boris Johnson chose the economy over Frost's pure Brexit.
Read 6 tweets
Alexander Clarkson Profile picture
23 Sep
Many pieces declare France or the UK need to be involved in the Indo-Pacific without grappling with exactly how UK and France should get involved, where they should get involved in a dozen distinct areas each with own dynamics and how much power they have to shape outcomes there
Particularly with the UK, the Indo-Pacific as space for symbolic expression of great power status is typical of how debates about geopolitics and the future of the British state are often divorced from discussion about whether it still has the means to make a significant impact
France has to protect territory in the Indo-Pacific. But again rhetoric about how France is "destined" to play a role there doesn't grapple with whether it has the heft there to play a leading role rather than act as junior partner to bigger states there like US, India or Japan
Read 5 tweets
Alexander Clarkson Profile picture
22 Sep
So can we put the epochal historical turning point of the month to bed now?
There are gradual trends towards a greater US shift to Asia as well as greater strategic autonomy in Europe built around the EU. With some focus in DC, Brussels and EU states on the basics of alliance management this process can play out without destabilising outcomes
But these trends are not going to flip everything overnight. The US pivot to Asia has been more or less on for three decades while the consolidation of EU power in Europe has been playing out since 1992. Too much frenzy over the events of the day, not enough focus on longue duree
Read 5 tweets

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