It is quite remarkable to watch over 41 years how OMOV has gone frm a demand of the Campaign for Labour Victory (CLV) which ended up in the SDP to then migrate across the Party spectrum to now a likely long-term demand of the other wing now
OMOV was in the past seen as a party reform tool by Leaderships. Now it is clearly a more insurgent policy position, but all experience shows it tends to win in the long-term as that is what a membership left or right now expects for its payment
This is significant as in 90's recruiting a large more extrinsically values instrumental big membership was seen as a good thing by Leadership. Now membership composition is much more post-materialist expressive & consequently framing of it looks to return to view in 50's & 60's
Thus membership is "balanced off" by other stakeholders (MPs and TUs) and "need for big membership" is not talked about anymore as it used to be in the 90s by Blair, Brown, Twigg etc. Some are clearly too scarred by 2015-19 to do that any more
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@AaronBastani@Keir_Starmer I can't see him beating a range of strong women candidates next time. Not even sure he will do that well in any new PLP 3rd of the vote ballot as a lot of past Tweets will come back to haunt him. Looks like a 10-20% candidate so far. Surely more hoping for a Deputy opportunity?
@AaronBastani@Keir_Starmer What every1 (esp Lord Mandelson) is not realising is opening a ballot to 2m levy payers with a likely 8% t/o (ie 160k) is in the self-organising social media age it will see up to 20k to 80k angry ex-members signing up via TUs (mainly Unite) & voting "against" candidates.
@AaronBastani@Keir_Starmer Whereas in 2020 dynamic was mainly pro-EU membs joining Party 2 vote, we can see frm the as expected poor Coyne 3rd place that there is no motivation on that side anymore & it will b replacd by a 50k+ bloc in a 160k voting section looking 2 use its vote effectively against people
@davidjrosenberg When it comes to multiple elections, loads of voters may not vote in one or other election. 4 example young membs might choose to only vote in the YL election to support a cand they know. In 2020 by-elections 96k voted in the leadership but not in the NEC elections
@LabourList@MattWrack@ForwardMmtm This poses big question of wd @Open_Selection have won at 2018 conf. Looking at CV8 there was a pretty solid 45% in favour of compromise with definite 35% which wanted OS. In effect it was down to @UnitePolitics 20% to decide. However the reasons for their vote r not covered here