Thread by @TheAtulMishra

Demography is indeed the future. Why Trudeau will never be a full majority PM and why Canada may never have a conservative government - a thread.

Canada is the immigration headquarter of the world. Virtually anyone can immigrate to Canada - whether they want to move as a student, with a job, or with family.

Between 1815 to 1850, roughly 800,000 immigrants moved to Canada from all over the world but chiefly from the British Isles. It was the time when Europe was becoming richer through the Industrial Revolution.

But the steep population growth made people look for greener pastures, most looked towards North America as the new abode.

A batch of 400,000 moved to Canada during the First World War and another 282,000 migrated during the Second World War. The immigration then stopped for a while.

Then came 1976 and Canadian government revised the Immigration Act. That truly opened the gates of Canada for the rest of the world. Immigrants from South Asia, China and the Caribbean thronged the nation. Even by conservative estimates, Canada gets 300,000 immigrants annually.

Birth rate in Canada has been on a steady decline, however the birth rate decline is not homogenous. White Canadians are birthing around 1.5 kids per couple while all other “minorities” clock birth rates well over 2.25.

And this brings us to the title of the thread. Why Trudeau will never be a full majority PM and why Canada may never have a conservative government. There are three types of voter groups in Canada.

Canadian liberals, Canadian conservatives and new voters. Canadian Conservatives are numerically less than the liberals, which explains their current political state.

Canadian liberals are the largest voting bloc in the country but aren’t enough to take Trudeau past the majority line.

A decade back, new voters backed the liberal party resolutely for their migrant friendly policies. Now they vote for “their people”. Sikhs (most of them Khalistanis) are a strong and affluent “minority” in Canada, who overwhelmingly vote for Jagmeet Singh’s New Democratic Party.

New Democratic Party’s vote share has been on a steady rise in the past few years because of addition of “new citizens”. Muslims are also increasingly becoming strong in Canada and Canada may soon see a strong Islamist party.

In the next 2 decades it will be impossible for the Canadians to even feature in a government cabinet. A New Democratic-Islamist alliance government will rule with an iron fist till one of the factions overpowers the other. I’ll bet my money on the latter.

It’s not like Canada cannot be redeemed. Conservative Party will have to reach out to the liberal voters and urge them to save Canada from the invasion of new migrants. And then tighten immigration rule in the country. Though the chances of it happening is pretty slim.

Whoever controls demography, controls the destiny. Canada is an example for all countries as well as India. What’s minority today could be majority tomorrow and may be masters day after.