Man, what a WEEK! for Nielsen ratings. I'm filled to bursting with thoughts. And I should be writing my actual report, but here's a quick teaser. For film.
The top 30 here.
So last week I said we'd have a film showdown between Cruella on Disney+, Vacation Friends on Hulu and He's All That on Netflix.
Cruella--going to SVOD from PVOD, the Pay 1 window now--wins going away.
What's fun about this is that it's the second real knock on the idea that "straight-to-streaming" drives additional sign ups.
With Raya we had one data point, but Cruella did about as well.
See Raya had a PVOD opening of 5.9 million hours. Cruella had 4.7 million hours.
Raya had a Pay-1 opening of 18M hours, a multiple of 3.
Cruella had an SVOD of 13.6, a multiple of 2.9.
So SVOD generates about 3x the PVOD opening. (A hypothesis we'll keep testing.)
But Raya and Cruella, with their Pay 1 openings, proved more popular than lots of direct to streaming films.
What does that mean?
Well, unlike what a lot of smart super-bulls on streaming--the Celebrity Wall Street Media Futurists--viewership basically determines acquisitions.
Meaning, something that is viewed 10x more than something else probably brought in/acquired 10x as many people. The math really is that simple.
Disney is learning what HBO knew for years: a film with a successful run in theaters can do as well on streaming as most straight-to-streaming titles.
The difference is those straight-to-streaming titles don't have Cruella's $230+ million in box office to add to the total as well.
For some in business, having more money is better than having less.
Other quick thoughts:
- Super curious if Black Widow holds this trend and breaks Luca's 27 million hour total. My gut would say no, except I plan to watch it when it premieres like a lot of folks I know.
- Vacation Friends was pretty low. Like 60th place of all streaming releases.
- So was He's All That at 49th, one spot above To All The Boys 3, which makes sense?
- And they both got datecdotes! which was what makes this so crazy.
If you liked this analysis, sign up to get it in your inbox tomorrow.
Not to toot my own horn, but my coverage provides tons more context than any other ratings news site out there.
This thread will be strategy, financials and subscribers. Content will get its own thread. (With way more charts.)
2/ Without having looked--honestly, I just spent the last 100 minutes reading the 10K and updating my charts/graphics--I think lots of people are going to hop on Netflix for a down quarter.
But the mood felt like it was going to be a miss...
3/ ...and beside two key numbers, this doesn't feel that bad.
But I should try to give a bigger thesis. Right? Like something flashy? Viral like?
Moreover, knowing that if something is popular in one window, it is popular in future windows too--literally one of three core principles of video entertainment--I long speculated that Marvel films on Netflix were INCREDIBLY popular.
As I tweeted above, I think over long time periods--say a year or more--the MCU films have more total viewership than the vast majority of Netflix originals.
3/ Also, #floraandulysses definitely beat my expectations and made the list. Though, it wouldn't have made the weekly top ten, which is a good "rule of thumb" for if something is very popular.
2/ And I say that even if I was off on a few of my predictions. Because this is when we get a peak insight the “y” or “output” in our models. We get to see if we were right or wrong. And even being wrong teaches us a lot!
3/ In this case, each earnings report where 1. Netflix provides more data and 2. Where we have more sources to cross check that data allows us to build better models and provide better insights.