Thread by @connolly_s

So @waukema stumbled onto this. Seems there’s a H1N1 wave kicking off in Europe right now. That would indicate that Covid is a spent force as it’s stopped suppressing flu wdyt @FatEmperor @MLevitt_NP2013 source apps.who.int

And @waukema found more at flunewseurope.org now 60 samples is not a wave *yet* but we’ve seen nothing all year… is that because all test capacity was diverted to Covid or was it because one ILI suppresses the others until@it is a spent force… I guess we’ll find out soon

Here’s a normal year graph for comparison. Note this graph starts at week 47 whereas we are just at week 37 so while 60 is small compared to the 13,000 at week 7, waves grow from small starts

Here’s the NL reporting of ILI sentinel data. This shows the numbers reporting to their family doctors with flu like symptoms. Week 37 is normally just when the season starts to kick off. If influenza is back we should see steady growth to a maximum in Jan/Feb

The BBC are reporting an ILI that is not Covid as going around... which would also seem to support the hypothesis that the Covid pandemic is over and it's endemic now
bbc.com/news/newsbeat-…

Note: none of this is proof of anything. We are looking at the a pair of data points from week 36 and week 37. Typically these weeks are the tip of the iceberg and things grow from there... except last year that didn't happen... only last year... previous 18 years it did

So the question is this: will this year be like last yer or like every year we have data for before last year? If it's like every year before 2020 then the pandemic could well be over (unless we now have a different flu pandemic because more are susceptible)

If it's like last year then these two weeks data are a random anomaly... of course it could be entirely different from everything before and do its own thing... the next few weeks will give us an indication one way or another

Sorry read the colours wrong H3 not H1N1 which is a lighter shade of blue