Let's not dismiss concerns that PHE report some vaccinated groups getting infected at higher rates than unvaccinated.
First, even if vaccines significantly reduce chance of infection (high vaccine effectiveness), real world data may not reflect this for several reasons ...
First, even if vaccines significantly reduce chance of infection (high vaccine effectiveness), real world data may not reflect this for several reasons ...
https://twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/1441305471487406081
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Vaccinated may behave differently to unvaccinated, e.g. taking more risks &/or ignoring low level symptoms.
Also, there may be population differences, e.g. previously infected with very high levels of immunity could be less likely to get vaccinated ...
Vaccinated may behave differently to unvaccinated, e.g. taking more risks &/or ignoring low level symptoms.
Also, there may be population differences, e.g. previously infected with very high levels of immunity could be less likely to get vaccinated ...
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Irrespective of the reasons, if real world infection rates among vaxed are higher (or not much lower) than unvaxed, vaccines may still be helpful in reducing hospitalisations & deaths but there should be serious questions about vaccine passports, sacking carers etc. ...
Irrespective of the reasons, if real world infection rates among vaxed are higher (or not much lower) than unvaxed, vaccines may still be helpful in reducing hospitalisations & deaths but there should be serious questions about vaccine passports, sacking carers etc. ...
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The big issue raised about the PHE Vaccine Surveillance reports is the use of NIMS population data to calculated rates amongst the unvaccinated. When ONS data are used, the estimated rate for unvaccinated becomes much higher. However …
The big issue raised about the PHE Vaccine Surveillance reports is the use of NIMS population data to calculated rates amongst the unvaccinated. When ONS data are used, the estimated rate for unvaccinated becomes much higher. However …
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1. Using NIMS population has problems, but so does using ONS estimates.
PHE make a case that NIMS is better particular for older age groups. It is not enough just to assume the ONS population are correct, it is an issue that needs exploring …
1. Using NIMS population has problems, but so does using ONS estimates.
PHE make a case that NIMS is better particular for older age groups. It is not enough just to assume the ONS population are correct, it is an issue that needs exploring …
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2. Vaccinated people over 80 seem to be getting infected at higher rates than unvaccinated whichever population denominator is used. There may be good reasons for this but these need exploring …
2. Vaccinated people over 80 seem to be getting infected at higher rates than unvaccinated whichever population denominator is used. There may be good reasons for this but these need exploring …
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3. Over time, the rates reported by PHE seem to be becoming more unfavourable or (for <40 &/or if using ONS population) less favourable to the vaccinated. Again, there may be good explanations for this, but it raises important questions …
3. Over time, the rates reported by PHE seem to be becoming more unfavourable or (for <40 &/or if using ONS population) less favourable to the vaccinated. Again, there may be good explanations for this, but it raises important questions …
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4. PHE don't report rates for one-dose vaccinated, but best estimates suggest rates are very high for some age groups.
This is another important issue that needs attention, given 12-17s are only getting one dose …
hartgroup.org/pick-your-deno…
4. PHE don't report rates for one-dose vaccinated, but best estimates suggest rates are very high for some age groups.
This is another important issue that needs attention, given 12-17s are only getting one dose …
hartgroup.org/pick-your-deno…
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I think the following are reasonable conclusions so far from PHE vaccine surveillance data:
• For 80+, vaccinated seem to be getting infected at a higher rate than unvaccinated.
• There is uncertainty over relative infection rates for 40+ & under 80 ...
I think the following are reasonable conclusions so far from PHE vaccine surveillance data:
• For 80+, vaccinated seem to be getting infected at a higher rate than unvaccinated.
• There is uncertainty over relative infection rates for 40+ & under 80 ...
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• Vaccinated in all age groups are getting infected at significant rates and
• over time, the relative advantage of vaccinated seems to be decreasing.
• Vaccinated in all age groups are getting infected at significant rates and
• over time, the relative advantage of vaccinated seems to be decreasing.
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Clearly still lots to understand, but enough in the data at least to raise questions about likely benefits of sacking unvaccinated carers/vaccine passports.
Rather than dismissing concerns, let's try to understand better what is going on.
More questioning not less please!
Clearly still lots to understand, but enough in the data at least to raise questions about likely benefits of sacking unvaccinated carers/vaccine passports.
Rather than dismissing concerns, let's try to understand better what is going on.
More questioning not less please!
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