Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Sep 25, 2021 24 tweets 14 min read Read on X
Rains over the #HornOfAfrica are back to monsoon level, and the heavier rains are forecast to remain for at least a fortnight.

This week's rainfall forecasts for #HornOfAfrica, #NorthAfrica and the #MiddleEast follow.
Today's forecasts big picture is of the view from above of North Africa, The Middle East, The Horn of Africa India and southern parts of Europe and Central Asia.

Ethiopia's @DemekeHasen has just started speaking to the #UNGA on behalf of the peoples of Ethiopia. Image
Here's a picture of Ethiopia's Deputy PM and Foreign Affairs Minister @DemekeHasen. Image
You can watch the video of his address here >>
Here's a picture of the Ethiopian delegation. Image
#UNGA #UNGAEthiopiaCrisis

Well that statement from @DemekeHassan was great. Concise, clear and dignified. I hope it was heard.

Now, back to the rain. Here's a picture of North Africa from this evening. Note the pattern of rain extending deep into the deserts of Sudan and KSA. Image
Here we have four model forecasts for the next 10 days of rain. Rain is forecast over the Sahel and nearly all of the #HornOfAfrica during this period. This is due to a late season monsoon burst which is currently building over India. ImageImageImageImage
Here we see 48 hour rainfall forecasts from the same four models, the CMC (Canada), GFS (US), KMA (Korea) and ACG (Australia). ImageImageImageImage
And finally, here are the two longer range models, which include the full impact of the monsoon burst. F
1. The GFS 16 day model.
2. The KMA 12 day model. ImageImage
This satellite image, also today, includes an important new feature which appeared this morning in the top right, a small area of intense convection over the Northern Arabian Sea south of Pakistan. Image
Here we have three 10 day rainfall forecasts for the Horn covering Ethiopia, Eritrea, Somaliland, Somalia, Djibouti, southern parts of Sudan, eastern parts of South Sudan and South Western parts of Yemen.

In three of these forecasts the rainfall covers almost the entire region. ImageImageImageImage
And here we have three 48 hour forecasts from the ECM (EU), GFS (US) and KMA (Korean) models. ImageImageImage
This is a closeup animation, 24 hours, of the area of disturbance in the Arabian Sea which was briefly designated as an area of interest by the global cyclone monitoring network (the purple line).
This morning when this appeared I posted a small thread about this. And between midnight and 6am (UTC) the GFS global weather model significantly adjusted its forecast on the basis of its appearance.
This is the most important tweet in that thread. And it represents the initial re calibration of the GFS model based on this observation. As this is long range and cyclones are very unpredictable it will likely change, but so far the forecast holds.
Here's an older view of the same data but looking at it from an Indian Ocean wide view.

These plots show precipitable water [airborne water vapour]. B ecause water has mass, in physics terms this roughly speaking equals energy/potential for rain].
This was before that pop up storm appeared. After the pop up storm appeared the model started predicting cyclones. Two of them.
These two cyclones are highly speculative at this stage. And they appear to arise after the Cyclone Gulab weather system, which is currently over the Bay of Bengal crosses India and emerges into the Arabian Sea.
Here's a picture Cyclone Gulab's forecast track this evening. Image
Which brings us to the rainfall forecasts for the Middle East. First we have four 10 day rainfall forecasts.

Of these only the GFS and CMC models have forecasted landfalling cyclones. ImageImageImageImage
Next four 48 hour forecasts, which show all show relatively minor rain over the Arabian Peninsula in the short term. ImageImageImageImage
And finally we have four long range forecasts.

1. KMA 12-Day
2. GEFS (US ensemble) 16 Day
3. EPS (EU ensemble) 15 Day
4. GFS 16-Day (same as the animations earlier) ImageImageImageImage
At this point talk of cyclones is highly speculative as their existence is still some time away. I will be monitoring this closely and posting the latest data and observations.
That said the overall pattern, from an energy perspective is unlikely to alter significantly in magnitude and there is a lot of water heading towards East Africa.

Where that arrives and in what form is yet to be determined. But something is going to happen.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Alastair Thompson

Alastair Thompson Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @althecat

Oct 3
This made me cry …. Tears streaming down my face. This is so very sad.

#Gazaunderattack
#GazaUnderFire
If @realDonaldTrump chooses to join Netanyahu’s genocidal campaign if he is not obeyed …. he WILL find himself indicted in the international criminal court in The Hague.

And he will then have to make a decision on whether he is willing to remain in the U.S.
@realDonaldTrump Should he proceed as he has intimated that he should now be pursued by protestors everywhere he goes.
Read 7 tweets
Sep 26
🔴 Al Jazeera English FLASHBACK| Live via @YouTubeyoutube.com/live/gCNeDWCI0…
Immediately after this speech NETANYAHU ORDERED AIR STRIKES ON LEBANON
From the inside the global forum of all of the UN Building.
Read 6 tweets
Sep 26
The best outcome of this would be if it turned into a Dunkirk result for the injured and wounded of Gaza to be taken to Europe for medical treatment.
There is a lot of concern about evacuations of civilians from Gaza in the flotilla as anyone leaving may not be able to return any time soon. /2
But the moral hazard here is palpable. There are thousands of injured and starving mostly women and children. And we saw the young babies dying in the hospitals in the early stages of this war. /3
Read 5 tweets
Sep 25
More and more naval vessels from Europe and the Middle East are being deployed to protect the Global Samir Flotilla as it moves slowly but surely towards Gaza where it intends to deliver aid and global attention. /1
Attacks from drones on the flotilla have resumed and Israel is presumably responsible for this. It is because of this that naval vessels from Europe are now joining the flotilla to protect their citizens rights of travel in international waters. /2
The escalation appears fairly slow at present and the flotilla is still within Greek waters at present /3
Read 9 tweets
Sep 22
The #Samud #GazaFlotilla is currently sailing across the Ionian Sea towards the island archipelago south east of Athens in the Western Mediterranean. Conditions appear good for this leg that departed from Sicily after leaving Tunisia. The Flotilla set off from Barcelona. Image
2/ this current leg is 860 kms roughly and lead boats in the 51 vessel flotilla are currently approaching south western Greece. You can follow the flotillas progress here >> flotilla-orpin.vercel.appImage
Image
3/ After two drone attacks on flotilla boats in Tunisia the flotilla sailed first to Sicily where it was joined by several more boats. And this map shows the path of the flotilla so far. The numbers in the dots indicate more vessels joining #GazaFlotilla Image
Read 8 tweets
Sep 21
The weakness of the uk prime minister is palpable. Astonishing. Pathetic.
Posting my reply again after X just quarantined my first draft by some digital voodoo
The uk is the primary transporter of materiel to Israel. And has been continuously since October 7th
Read 5 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(