Key investor psychology to understand: 1) Conviction allows sitting on a theme 2) Fear is not when a price is going down, but actually when it's peaking on euphoria 3) Greed is not when a price is going up, but when its bottoming 4) Expectations govern stockprices #uranium
In recent months many of our followers misunderstand, the different between expectations built in and actual outcomes, stockprices often gage 3-6 month future expectation outcomes, particularly when a sector is in a momentum phase of its cycle like #uranium today.
Actual outcomes are less important if they are already priced into expectations, at the recent peak of #uranium stocks the implied premium over spot was $15-20. That has reduced by $5-8, to $9-13 depending where the spot moves next week relative to stockprices.
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Is a 2-3x PE cheap for #coal company given extraordinary high spot prices?
The answer is ofcourse no, perhaps 2 upside remains.
Variables to consider:
Low cost producer, still profitable as cycle lows, what's mid cycle CF multiple?
Are volumes expanding?
Is the share count reducing due to stock buy backs?
Using a price to book ratio, is it trading near an historic High?
How much super normal cashflow will be collected, prior to the cycle drop off?
Does the current PE drop to 8-10x using midcycle assumptions?
Whats the debt level?
A combination that could produce a 3-4x return from here:
- 50% sustainable increase in volumes over 2022 as low cost
- a net cash balance sheet allowing 20% of shares to be repurchased over 18 months
- 1st quartile cost producer, always profitable through the cycle