Thread by @ashishkjha

The southern surge is slowing

And cases in some Northern states rising

So it is all seasonal? Are vaccines working?

Let's look at data

Today the 10 LEAST vaccinated states had

2X the cases
3X the hospitalizations
5X the deaths

compared to 10 most vaccinated states

Thread

A lot of folks have been arguing the summer surge was "seasonal"

And now, the northern half of US poised to get hit

And if you look at states with biggest outbreaks today

Alaska, ID, WY, WV, MT, KY, ND

Largely not in the deep south

So should all northern states worry?

2/4

While we see cases rising in northern states

There are two distinct patterns here:

1. States with low vax rates getting slammed, having to ration hospital beds

2. States with high vax rates rising slowly with lots of hospital capacity

And the most interesting part?

Widening gap in cases vs deaths!

High vax states: 50% fewer cases per capita

But 80% fewer deaths!

Vaccines shine in preventing deaths

So if you're worried about this fall

More testing, masks will help

But getting more folks vaccinated still key to avoiding bad surge

End