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26 Sep, 9 tweets, 2 min read
NEW: Polls have closed in the German elections. Exit poll suggests it’s going to be nailbitingly close for the top spot.

SPD: 25%
CDU/CSU: 25%
GREEN: 15%
FDP: 11%
AfD: 11%
LINKE: 5%

#GermanElection2021
Though this would suggest that CDU/CSU has done a little better than some polls suggested, it’s still a significant reduction on their 2017 performance of 33% (and way down on 2013 of 41.5%). SPD are down a touch but basically static. AfD down and Greens up.
Different exit poll SPD slightly ahead. Either way looks like worst CDU/CSU performance since 1949.
Apols SPD actually up from 20.5% from 2017. Similarish share to 2013.
ZDF projections of possible coalitions.
Situation is deeply uncertain. Merkel ain’t going anywhere for a while. Yet another grand coalition, at least, seems unlikely.
Official preliminary German election results

SPD: 25.7%
CDU/CSU: 24.1%
Greens: 14.8%
FDP: 11.5%
AfD: 10.3%
Linke: 4.9%
So Social democrats coming first/governing in Germany, Norway, Sweden, Spain, Portugal, Finland, Sweden, Denmark. Picture is complicated and inevitably nuanced in each place (and often buttressed by wider left forces) but social democracy isn’t dead yet.
Also worth noting that the populist right on retreat in Germany, Netherlands, Norway and other places too. We should hear as much about it as when they were on the rise.

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More from @lewis_goodall

Lewis Goodall Profile picture
27 Sep
Tribune rally opened by @zarahsultana: “Want to open this rally with solidarity for our comrade Andy McDonald.” (Cue enormous applause). Says the current Labour leadership is “shameful.” Attacks the “Blairites.” #Lab21
Sultana attacks the “Blairite clique” which she says is dominating the leadership, “gathering in drinks receptions with Peter Mandelson” [boos] “reliving the 1980s and 1990s.”
More cheers when Sultana says “it’s an absolute disgrace that the leadership have let a scum newspaper have a stand at conference this year.”
Read 24 tweets
Lewis Goodall Profile picture
27 Sep
NEW: Big news from Brighton- Shadow Cabinet Minister @AndyMcDonaldMP has resigned. He says his position was “untenable.” Blames Starmer’s office for instructing him to go into a meeting to argue against £15 min wage. Says Starmer is not honouring the pledges on which he ran.
To be clear Starmer pledged a £10min wage not £15 when running. But left has been accusing Starmer all week (and before) of retreating from his campaign pledges more broadly and running the party in a v different way than he outlined in the campaign (with some justification).
McDonald has been unhappy with the direction of the party under Starmer’s leadership for some time. But he could barely have chosen a more explosive moment or style in which to resign.
Read 4 tweets
Lewis Goodall Profile picture
27 Sep
Absolutely packed house for @lisanandy in conversation fringe event
Lisa Nandy on SPD coming first: “it’s been a really stunning result for our sister party- it’s really great news...I was on a panel with Olaf Scholz last year when it didn’t look like SPD had any chance. I think the biggest lesson is never, ever believe that it’s not possible.”
“We think there could be a general election in 2023. That means we could be in power in 18 months time. That’s the lesson I take from the German elections, how quickly things can change. That’s what we should be thinking about.”
Read 8 tweets
Lewis Goodall Profile picture
27 Sep
First conference speech for @RachelReevesMP as Shadow Chancellor.

“The Conservatives, missing every one of the debt and deficit target they set themselves. With inflation rocketing, people feeling the squeeze, at the checkout, at the petrol pump.”
“The Tories have the gall- the gall, to make working people pay for their failing.”

Says Labour’s approach will be about private, public working together.

Not entirely clear how Johnson would disagree with that.
Most explicit I’ve heard a senior Shadow Cabinet minister on Brexit. Reeves saya (in reference to supply chain “chaos”) that Labour will “yes, clean up the Tories’ Brexit mess.”
Read 15 tweets
Lewis Goodall Profile picture
26 Sep
Delegate after delegate on the conference floor speaking against the Starmer rule changes: “MPs don’t need any more power.” #LabourConference2021 Image
.@ShabanaMahmood says that the old rules were deeply problematic. That all those MPs triggered were women or MPs of colour.

“The idea that we as MPs are somehow alien to our communities or our party is just not true.” Image
Mahmood points out PLP is now maj female and most diverse in history: “The idea that we as MPs would deliver you a leadership election which is pale, male and stale- you’re having a laugh.”
Read 8 tweets
Lewis Goodall Profile picture
26 Sep
Attention rightly on German elections today but important news from Iceland’s yesterday. 🇮🇸 has become the first European country where a majority of its MPs are women. 33 women were elected, up from 24 in the last parliament, of 63 in total (52%). Image
By contrast UK is at a much lower 34%.
Iceland was named as the most gender-equal country in the world for the 12th year in a row by the World Economic Forum earlier this year.
Read 4 tweets

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