Thread by @amlivemon

Taper Tantrum Notes of mine for this:

⁃Taper assumptions are based on the Fed rhetoric and public comments, but that is more about market signals and paying lip service to the bond market for the near term.

@Halsrethink @nglinsman

https://twitter.com/complete_intel/status/1427604580226027552

⁃The likelihood of tapering is low based on multiple political and economic realities. First, we have midterms in 2022 and Yellen nor Powell can ill afford a market crash that close to midterms. Secondly, in the near term, we have a fiscal problem brewing where the GOP is

totally unwilling to give the Dems a free pass and raise the debt ceiling. Because of this Yellen and Powell have prepared $3 trillion in new QE to unleash after this Jackson Hole taper tantrum head fake plays out.

⁃Powell and his taper goons keep touting unemployment and the economy strengthening but the reality is with a patchwork of impending lockdowns globally and within the US, supply chains will be further disrupted and strain the economy once again. We have 8 to 10 million

Americans with permanent job losses that have yet to be calculated into unemployment figure because of the games they play with numbers. On top of all that, China is contracting with only 2-3% GDP growth in the coming year. Inventories will be thin during the holiday season

limiting annual job surge.
⁃The best comparison we have is 2013… are we to believe the economy today is stronger than it was in 2013 with all the variables I pointed out? An event of tapering would force the Fed to admit they were wrong on sticky inflation…. Let’s be

realistic, when have we EVER seen the Fed admit wrongdoing?
⁃UMich consumer confidence collapsed and New York manufacturing index came in at 18.3, expected was 29, previous was 40, crushing blow to the Fed narratives

⁃Goldman, Morgan Stanley and Nordea keep pointing to 2022 taper start but how can any of them be sure about where the economy is in 6 months?
⁃We have maybe 100 points up from here and 1000 points down risk. Taper to me is just absurd talk.

⁃Hedge Funds right now are desperate… they need to make gains before year end and a shift to cyclicals and small caps is likely where head to so any chatter about tapering is going to wreck that party.