Taper Tantrum Notes of mine for this:

⁃Taper assumptions are based on the Fed rhetoric and public comments, but that is more about market signals and paying lip service to the bond market for the near term.

@Halsrethink @nglinsman
⁃The likelihood of tapering is low based on multiple political and economic realities. First, we have midterms in 2022 and Yellen nor Powell can ill afford a market crash that close to midterms. Secondly, in the near term, we have a fiscal problem brewing where the GOP is
totally unwilling to give the Dems a free pass and raise the debt ceiling. Because of this Yellen and Powell have prepared $3 trillion in new QE to unleash after this Jackson Hole taper tantrum head fake plays out.
⁃Powell and his taper goons keep touting unemployment and the economy strengthening but the reality is with a patchwork of impending lockdowns globally and within the US, supply chains will be further disrupted and strain the economy once again. We have 8 to 10 million
Americans with permanent job losses that have yet to be calculated into unemployment figure because of the games they play with numbers. On top of all that, China is contracting with only 2-3% GDP growth in the coming year. Inventories will be thin during the holiday season
limiting annual job surge.
⁃The best comparison we have is 2013… are we to believe the economy today is stronger than it was in 2013 with all the variables I pointed out? An event of tapering would force the Fed to admit they were wrong on sticky inflation…. Let’s be
realistic, when have we EVER seen the Fed admit wrongdoing?
⁃UMich consumer confidence collapsed and New York manufacturing index came in at 18.3, expected was 29, previous was 40, crushing blow to the Fed narratives
⁃Goldman, Morgan Stanley and Nordea keep pointing to 2022 taper start but how can any of them be sure about where the economy is in 6 months?
⁃We have maybe 100 points up from here and 1000 points down risk. Taper to me is just absurd talk.
⁃Hedge Funds right now are desperate… they need to make gains before year end and a shift to cyclicals and small caps is likely where head to so any chatter about tapering is going to wreck that party.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Live Monitor

Live Monitor Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @amlivemon

17 Aug
Being a superpower has its responsibilities but first and foremost it is it’s own long term self interest.

I’m not going to bother reiterating why the US was in Afghanistan but rather focus on why we should have maintained a force there.

The US under previous administrations
had lost significant influence and any real footprint in Central Asia. After being booted out of Uzbekistan, the reality in keeping forces in Afghanistan became much more evident if the Pentagons long term lily pad strategy was to be properly implemented across the region. Since
Obama had destroyed US influence in Turkey, that option to stress Iran’s defenses for any possible future conflict was logically now going to fall onto Afghanistan forward operating positions rather Turkey where we likely would get no permission from Ankara.
Read 5 tweets
24 Mar
Range Bound Dollar

Bullish US$ capped at 93-95 DXY
·         US vaccine distribution has surpassed every modernized nation (except the UK)
·         US Fed/Treasury actions would want to limit the perception of failing dollar
US Fed/Treasury actions to improve its purchasing power in order to combat commodity inflation 
·         EU banking sector insolvency issues
·         EU manufactures lockdown/political upheaval to lower euro
·         Fed distraction with bonds/rates to worry about rising dollar
·         Weaponization of the dollar to politically stress adversaries (Turkey, Russia, China, etc)
·         Dollar shortage within the EU and China, forcing sales of USTs to raise reserves
Read 7 tweets
20 Mar
Haha thanks Britain for this...
The hero knight!
Not a wench...
Read 4 tweets
6 Nov 20
Overview:

For Trump: Neutral. Losing in a manner that is extremely questionable in peoples eyes will only make him a martyr. He will use this to grow a new media and political org for the future.

For Dems: Absolute disaster. Trading Trump for the next 2 maybe 3 election cycles
will without a doubt cause significant changes within the party. A bluewave never materialized & it cost Senate & House races as I expected.

For GOP: Could not have worked out better. They seemingly push Trump out in a manner that benefited the Congressional makeup.
For Europe: Short term victory. 2021 will be rough economically and will likely find no support from a Biden presidency with Russia &
China looking to advance its geopolitical positions that were held in check for past 4 years.
Read 4 tweets
16 Oct 20
Stimulus Game of Chicken
/
w Update

Stimulus was on track to pass 2 weeks ago until Trump had contracted COVID. Nancy Pelosi, smelling political advantage, began stalling the bill and citing COVID related concerns to use the issue as an aggregator for the election.

The problem
that Pelosi had run into is gross miscalculation of her political leverage and the risk associated with stalling stimulus checks and UI on the down tickets of House races. Originally, the Dems were going to lose 8-10 seats but this error in judgment will now likely cause 10-15
seats if not more.

Now, Trump and Mnuchin have the advantage in political perception of delayed stimulus and will turn the screws on Nancy so long as it makes election sense. Next week we will see a Senate bill passing PPP and UI benefits which only increases pressure on
Read 7 tweets
12 Oct 20
US STIMULUS & ELECTION US Stimulus Update
 
Firstly, bear in mind, Presidential EOs are the back stop, especially for  UI and PPP.
 
However, as our very own @Halsrethink states, Pelosi’s rejection of the $1.8 trillion offer is more about the details of its content, and the
treatment of possible add-ons, such as aid for airlines. Talks have been ongoing over the weekend, despite the tactical public rhetoric, as evidenced by the following headlines yesterday:
 
*MNUCHIN MAY STILL INCREASE STIMULUS OFFER: KUDLOW
 
I would also recommend reading
Pelosi’s actual statement, which can be found on her website here, as opposed to the more sensationalist headlines of the press.
 
Then, according to Fox News, between 10 and 12 GOP Senators would support the above offer, including Ted Cruz. Add that number to the 47 Democrat
Read 20 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(