Ryan Profile picture
28 Sep, 6 tweets, 2 min read
Digging into the NYC weather report on Hurricane Ida related flooding -- and I can see from the title where it's going.

The New Normal: Combating Storm-Related Extreme Weather in New York City.

PDF: www1.nyc.gov/assets/orr/pdf…
The report blames climate change at every turn for the botched handling of the flood emergency by NYC leadership including the Mayor, who issued a flood emergency 3-hours too late -- who knows how many died b/c of the delay.
NYC sewer system is described as being able to handle 1.5" to 2" rainfall rates PER HOUR before becoming overwhelmed.

When it was built in the 19th Century it was inadequate for the climate back then -- as evidenced by frequent extreme flood events (see NY Times archives)
Here's the timeline of warnings -- and then the Mayor's State of Emergency 3-hours too late, blamed on a "new moment"

"This new moment, in which intense
and life-threatening extreme storms can quickly strengthen, calls for a new set of rules"

Such bullshit.
Exactly. De Blasio mucked everything up about the storm preparation and warnings and now he wants to blame the National Weather Service & get a second opinion and pair of eyes? The shamelessness is just incredible here.

nypost.com/2021/09/27/de-…
And here's Senator Schumer holding up an AccuWeather map at his press conference.

NOAA and NWS coordinate warnings with the state and city, not a private company.

What the hell is going on?

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More from @RyanMaue

25 Sep
Bizarre. 30 year old environmental scientist (PhD student in forestry) charged with arson to wildland for starting Fawn Fire in California, and may be a fire bug or serial arsonist.



nytimes.com/2021/09/24/us/…
Seems California has an arson problem (no lightning 🌩)

A 20-year-old Ukiah man was arrested Tuesday on suspicion of intentionally setting a fire that burned homes and forced hundreds to flee the Mendocino County town of Calpella.

ukiahdailyjournal.com/2021/09/15/mcs…
Last week:

Cal Fire investigators have determined the Bridge Fire to be arson. The news comes over two weeks after the fire was sparked in the Auburn State Recreation Area.

abc10.com/article/news/l…
Read 4 tweets
24 Sep
Model guidance this afternoon for Hurricane Sam continues to be encouraging for a northward turn over open-ocean.
GEFS 12z ensembles (0.25°) through 180-hours are tightly clustered. Always outliers out of 31 solutions, so we focus on the mean (black line).
Uh oh!
The upgrade/experimental (47r3) HRES version
We cannot definitively say if/when Sam could affect the Northeast US. All we can do is provide probabilities & change them as time goes by. I'd estimate by Monday we will be confident enough in the forecast.
Read 4 tweets
24 Sep
Hurricane Sam is expected to become a Category 4 intense hurricane. Based on estimate of ACE of 35 for the lifecycle, added into previous 2021 storms, so far the season is stacking up to be "average"
Prior to 1995, the North Atlantic was in an "inactive" state with fewer and less intense tropical storms & hurricanes. Since 1995, that has stepped-up & changed dramatically with a doubling of seasonal ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy). 🌀

5-years of 2017-2021 = huge ACE 📈
12 out of 18 named storms have had an ACE of less than 2.4
6 named storms (hurricanes): Elsa, Grace, Henri, Ida, Larry and Sam (will) account for about 90% of the Atlantic ACE (thru Sept)
That's usually the case -- blow through alphabet but only 6/18 do heavy lifting with ACE.
Read 5 tweets
23 Sep
Interesting lawsuit filed by @JohnStossel against Facebook and its climate fact-checking group "Climate Feedback" for demonetizing his videos after being labeled "misleading".
yahoo.com/entertainment/…
The defamation suit centers on a video posted by Stossel on California wildfires that ostensibly blames forest mismanagement as well as climate change. The Climate Feedback group fact-checked a claim he did not make, and dinged his video as misleading & missing context.
The broader question here is how do social media platforms arbitrate "facts" on its platform on contentious scientific or political issues that could cause a journalist or company to lose valuable traffic revenue.
Read 6 tweets
22 Sep
IEA urges Russia to ramp up gas supply to Europe 🛢

Gazprom says Nord Stream 2 is complete and ready to supply upon approval. In the meantime, gas reserves are perilously low heading into winter & prices keep doubling.
ft.com/content/eb2315…
Plenty of capacity is available in other pipelines thru Ukraine to meet demand, but Russia is said to restricting gas supplies. Putin holds all the cards.
euractiv.com/section/energy…
Europe risks running out of gas very quickly if early winter is especially harsh. Prices would go thru the roof and significant populations would suffer the winter without affordable heating. This is shaping up to be a predictable catastrophe.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 9 tweets
16 Sep
Could Europe run out of gas?
“The short answer is, yes, this is a real risk"

Skyrocketing energy prices across Europe as millions can't afford to heat their homes.

Another cold winter due to climate change would entirely deplete gas supplies. 🌡️

apnews.com/article/europe…
Climate change including extreme weather e.g. polar vortex, hurricanes, and lack of wind have conspired to tighten gas supplies across the world.

This confluence of events will only get worse, and could be catastrophic in another extreme cold winter.

fortune.com/2021/09/16/sho…
Carbon fees also at an all-time high meaning climate policy makes it even more expensive and infeasible to backfill supply with dirty energy.

Europe is also highly dependent upon Russia for gas.

Market will see gas prices soar further during cold snap.

cnbc.com/2021/09/16/eur…
Read 5 tweets

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