Stock price expectations in #uranium and selecting outperformers from here:
A) overpromotion and hence high expectations priced in leads to underperformance
B) underpromotion moving to promotion and broker coverage leads to outperformance
C) the better project matrix + promotion.
...... Leads to outperformance
D) over promoted + below average project matrix + high expectations leads to underperformance
E) accelerating promotion, coupled with 1st tier project matrix coupled with ETF triple entry leads to massive outperformance.

#uranium
For some time now, ego on individual #uranium stock names appears to be blinkering reality:
A) AISC of <$30 is great Vs >$50
B) 80% of the cycle is governed by the spot move, not promotor mgmt.
C) Low capex intensity is much better than high
D) low expectations + achievement =

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Cycle Bottom

Cycle Bottom Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @BULLReturns

7 Sep
Likely very accretive for $EU shareholders given the much higher valuation #uranium
This deal will propel the $EU stockprice through $3 over the next 3-6 months

#uranium
The foundations are being laid for the next 3x upside $EU, potentially exceeding $PDN 869x last cycle

#uranium
Read 4 tweets
29 Aug
Is a 2-3x PE cheap for #coal company given extraordinary high spot prices?

The answer is ofcourse no, perhaps 2 upside remains.

Variables to consider:
Low cost producer, still profitable as cycle lows, what's mid cycle CF multiple?
Are volumes expanding?
Is the share count reducing due to stock buy backs?
Using a price to book ratio, is it trading near an historic High?
How much super normal cashflow will be collected, prior to the cycle drop off?
Does the current PE drop to 8-10x using midcycle assumptions?
Whats the debt level?
A combination that could produce a 3-4x return from here:

- 50% sustainable increase in volumes over 2022 as low cost
- a net cash balance sheet allowing 20% of shares to be repurchased over 18 months
- 1st quartile cost producer, always profitable through the cycle

#coal
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(