Choose a method, all of which are different. But what they have in common is a criteria by which they could be invalidated. This is what makes them respectable.... their readiness to be wrong.
And then you have the - 'it could go up or down'. No matter how respectable it sounds, without this criteria of invalidation, without a solid prediction, you just have pseudo-scientific nonsense.
Run a mile from anyone who dances around or dodges this [criteria of invalidation], for their fear of being wrong only goes to show they don't understand the nature of TA, modeling, and theory... they don't even have a proper theory.
The fear is that they themselves will be wrong as opposed to their theory... which they don't have.
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