The end of nation-states is coming.
Internet and Blockchain will bankrupt them, by distributing its power to individuals, corporations, supra-national entities, and distributed organizations.

Just at the moment when they need more $ than ever
Thread 🧵
Picture this:
1. Individuals have + power.
They can access all the info in the world, and reach everybody in the world. The only thing they need is good, catchy ideas.

A single person, Satoshi Nakamoto changed the world with a pseudonym with their Bitcoin paper.

QAnon did the same
Even a random guy like me can come out of nowhere, read scientific papers in his spare time, and write articles in sweatpants that end up read by tens of millions of people and influence the policies of dozens of countries.

Impossible just 20 years ago.
Up till then, it was broadcasters who had the power to dictate thought, and the agenda of broadcasters was heavily influenced by the government.
2. Multinational Companies
As big tech companies grow, they replace lots of local businesses and concentrate their wealth in a few ppl
Well exemplified by the travel industry
You can see the shift in the tone companies use.
And the tech they build is going to keep undermining their power.
3. Blockchain eliminates gatekeepers through decentralization

How did it work until now? The gov was always the ultimate gatekeeper
But Blockchain—the tech, and more importantly, its culture—kill this. You don't need a central gatekeeper when the community can achieve a better outcome with less red tape and corruption.

4. Supranational entities
The history of the world shows that political scope grows to manage the size of the problems.

We now have global problems. And so we will have global orgs to solve them,
US, EU, WHO, WTO, IMF, WB... all are supranational organizations that emerged to solve pbms they couldn't solve alone.

The failure of the WHO during the pandemic only was news because of how sorely needed the organism was.
1. Individuals
2. Corporations
3. Blockchain
4. Supranational Entities

All will take away power away from the nation-state
As they do, a new class emerges. This is the way we should understand the Somewheres vs. Anywheres.

The Somewheres are bound to the nation-state. The anywheres aren't.
This will be accelerated by the emergence of the Lingua Franca that will remain at the top forever: English (unless we invent quickly a reliable universal auto-translator)…
This loss of sovereignty happens just at the time when the Nation-State goes broke because its income goes down due to corporate taxation, individual taxation, and money printing limitation:
1. Corporate taxation is much harder when companies are fully remote.
It's easy to tax a mine.
It's harder to tax a pharma company that can move its revenue around the world. At least they have a headquarters.

What if you eliminate the headquarters? remote work does this
This is how we should be reading Biden's attempt to fix a global minimum tax to all governments. But so far only 130/195 have agreed. And look who disagrees:
Ireland is the 2nd richest country in the EU per capita. That comes mostly from their corporate tax strategy. Do you think Ireland is eager to lose their competitive advantage?

Oh, the EU needs unanimity on this vote.
We'll see what happens in October.
2. Individual taxation
Becomes much harder when there's remote work and ppl can shop around to the most compelling tax system.
Countries have noticed this and are competing for their taxes.
Obviously, taxing is even harder when ppl start using cryptocurrencies.

Crypto has another impact on govs' financing: they can't print money as much
3. Money Printing Reduced
Govs have been pretty happy printing money to finance themselves
Which has made lots of people rich from the stock market... by making poor those who held cash through inflation
As a result BTC is growing

The more cryptocurrencies ppl hold, the less countries can print money and hope it doesn't lead to inflation
And costs are increasing due to the demographic ticking bomb.

1. We don't have children
2. But we live much longer
3. As a result, every retiree is supported by fewer and fewer workers
4. So the govt debt increases
Which means more interest payments... while costs of old age benefits grow. Today, 20% of gov spending is dedicated to that. What will happen when it doubles?
A. Less power for nation-states
B. At a time when their income dwindles
C. But also, when their costs increase
--> Nation-states will go bankrupt. Something else will replace them.
We shouldn't be surprised. This is what happened to the Church in 1500 when the printing press appeared. Or to chiefdoms when writing appeared.…
Does it make sense to you? Tell me what you think!
Many more details in today's article…
What will replace nation-states? I'll go deep into that in a future article. Follow here and subscribe to the newsletter to read it

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More from @tomaspueyo

24 Sep
The geography of Egypt is bonkers 🇪🇬🌍
Look at that image of the Middle-East by night. See that "flower" in the middle? That is the Nile.

Egypt has 105 MILLION ppl!
99% of them live in that light area!
That's 3% of its territory!

What else is crazy about Egypt's geography?
The Nile's banks are between 0.5km and 20km wide (~0.3 to 12 miles). 105M ppl live in that area plus the delta. Crazy. They do that because it's fertile AF

What's outside though? Nothing.
In the west, there's nothing for thousands of miles. There's so much nothing that in 5000 years of history, Egypt has NEVER been successfully invaded from here.

Even the nazis tried and failed.
Read 19 tweets
23 Sep
“The future is already here. It’s just not evenly distributed.”—William Gibson @GreatDismal

The future is already in the brain of the 200 million cryptocurrency holders. They can be better understood as a country, as an alternative community to nation-states.
A nation-state citizen doesn’t question the sovereignty of the gov
Doesn’t question the validity of its currency
Doesn’t fathom a world without the TVs and radio stations and notary-publics and certification organisms that make the nation-state what it is.
They wrap their heads around 20th-century country flags.
They can’t fathom the end of the nation-state, just as 1500s-era Europeans couldn’t fathom the end of the omnipotent Catholic Church.
Read 5 tweets
20 Sep
The emergence of cryptocurrencies reminds me of the emergence of writing and currencies. These are obvious to us now, but they were weird to their contemporaries.

Let's have a look 🧵
The parallel with fiat currencies is better known, so let's start with it.

Early on, ppl bartered. Inconvenient.
So they started using some currency.
First, it was something scarce, easy to value and to divide into smaller pieces (=fungible), and with some intrinsic value. Eg, salt (thus "salary")
Read 24 tweets
14 Sep
If you catch COVID, the risk of developing COVID Chronic Fatigue Syndrome are 3,000x higher than those of suffering a bad vaccine side-effect. That illness can leave you out of work and energy for the rest of your life.
The most long-lasting part of Long COVID is likely Chronic Fatigue Syndrome, which so far has no cure and can last decades.

Your likelihood of catching it from COVID is ~2-3%, and it's worse for young ppl than old ppl

Vaccines appear to help. They probably reduce the odds of developing COVID CFS by 75-90%.
Read 6 tweets
13 Sep
Long COVID is confusing until we realize its most alarming outcome is *Chronic Fatigue Syndrome* (CFS).

What does CFS look like?
Is it like Long COVID? 🧵

This is a person with CFS. At 24, she had spent nearly a decade without putting her feet on the ground.
This is @jenbrea suffering from post-exertional malaise, from her documentary Unrest, which you can watch on Netflix (the 3 clips come from the documentary)
This is Whitney, who hasn't talked for years. His father:
“Whitney’s state is comparable to an AIDS patient about a week before his death. And that has been the case for the last six years.”
Read 12 tweets
6 Sep
I'm going to try a new experiment in 2022.

The idea is to create a cohort-based course with live lectures. I am still debating whether it should be about
1. How to solve any problem
2. Advanced product and growth mgmt

Would you be interested in any? LMK!
Over my career managing billion-dollar tech products with hundreds of millions of users, studying storytelling, and writing COVID and Uncharted Territories articles, I've come to think the biggest pbm of mankind is that we don't know how to make decisions.

I want to solve that.
The 3-week course would include frameworks, lectures, and more importantly, workshops so you can bring pbms to the table and we can work to solve them together, learning decision-making along the way.
Read 5 tweets

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