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28 Sep, 4 tweets, 1 min read
1. Article contained a quote about corn prices going under $4 next year. Some clarification will be helpful. I don't think that will happen until summer 2022 at the earliest. Obviously weather dependent as well.
2. My thinking is that there is going to be a major global acreage response to the current high grain prices, even considering the ongoing run up in input costs. Land prices and rents going up is the norm as grain prices go up. Other inputs too.
3. Market analysts, myself included, were surprised by the muted acreage response to the higher grain prices in 2021. Maybe I will be wrong again, but history suggests a strong US acreage response in 2022. Maybe 183 million acres + combined US corn/soy planted acreage.
4. Hard for me to see how the global acreage response in 2022 will not overwhelm any demand growth for corn. Soybeans will undoubtedly benefit from the renewable diesel boom. But how much?

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More from @ScottIrwinUI

Scott Irwin Profile picture
1 Oct
1. Weekend Reading: As they used to say on Monty Python, "...and now for something completely different. A couple of years ago I wrote a paper with this title, "Writing Papers in Economics Using Fake Latex." The article is real. Here is the link onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.111…
2. The back story for the paper will provide some insights into how faddish and tribal academics can be. Most people outside academics will be surprised how influential the physical appearance of a paper can be to other academics.
3. The "cool kids" in economics and lots of other STEM fields write papers in something called LaTeX. It was originally designed for desktop publishing, and I will be the first to admit that papers produced using this platform have a pleasing aesthetic appearance.
Read 12 tweets
Scott Irwin Profile picture
29 Sep
1. Further confirmation that the leaked RVO numbers last week were real. This is quite a statement even considering how ferocious past battles in the #RFSwars have been.
2. Assuming the leaked numbers were right (at least at the time), I am still trying to figure out the political calculus of Biden Admin in going so anti-ag on the RVOs. Whatever your personal views on the RFS, the leaked proposal is indeed the worst ever from perspective of ag
3. Think about that. By all appearances, the Biden Admin is attacking the RFS more aggressively than even the Trump Admin. Who had that on their bingo card? I certainly did not.
Read 6 tweets
Scott Irwin Profile picture
28 Sep
1. Given strong evidence now that leaked RVO numbers were legit, we can now consider further how the Biden EPA is going to justify the cuts.
2. I have talked a lot about the "intentionally late gambit" for crushing the RVOs, particularly for the conventional ethanol mandate. Biden EPA could clearly use this for cutting 2020 RVO by arguing compliance is late. Probably do so for 2021. But 2022?
3. Since the leaked RVOs included substantial cuts to the conventional mandate for all three years for 2021-2022, I no longer think this is the justification being used to crush the RVOs for all three years. Instead, they went were even the Trump EPA dared not tread.
Read 7 tweets
Scott Irwin Profile picture
22 Sep
1. Put together this handy cheat sheet for the leaked RFS RVO numbers in the @OPISBiofuels article this morning. Also included the current "final" RVOs for 2020 and the "timecopped" adjusted RVO for 2020 (h/t to Rinny for always have the pithiest description!)
@OPISBiofuels 2. The only bone thrown out to ag is the increase in the advanced to 6.7 billion gallons in 2022. One way to benchmark these numbers is to compare the total RVO to the 20.09 total RVO currently on the books for 2020: -2.96BG in 2020, -1.462BG in 2021, & +0.675BG in 2022.
@OPISBiofuels 3. Using the current 2020 total RVO as the benchmark, the leaked RVOs for 2020-2020 result in a total RVO cut of 3.747 billion gallons. Would have to go back to check for sure, but think it would make the Biden Admin a bigger chopper of the RFS than even the Trump Admin.
Read 7 tweets
Scott Irwin Profile picture
22 Sep
1. @OPISBiofuels reporting today ***Ethanol RINs Dip Below $1 on 'Leaked' RVO Proposed Volumes. Start with conventional mandate numbers supposedly leaked.
@OPISBiofuels 2. According to OPIS "The volume totals were 12.5 billion gal of conventional fuel in 2020
-- well below the previously finalized 15.0 billion gal -- 13.453 billion gal in 2021 and 14.096 billion gal in 2022."
@OPISBiofuels 3. Assuming these are accurate, a whole host of issues raised. First, how can you ex post justify cutting a previously finalized RVO by 2.5 billion gallons? Did they go whole hog on the "compliance is not finalized/intentionally late legal gambit"?
Read 8 tweets
Scott Irwin Profile picture
17 Aug
1. With #pft21 in full swing this week, thought it would be a good time to share something I have been digging into on corn yields: wildfires. You read that right: wildfires. Lots of smoke and haze around this summer and we know photosynthesis needs energy from the sun.
2. I want to begin with a foundational fact about corn yields that I learned from the great Ken Cassman, now retired from Agronomy Dept. at Univ of NE. He was kind enough to exchange emails with me awhile back and instruct me on some corn yield basics.
3. This is from a 2010 book chapter that Ken co-authored. The right panel shows the strong relationship between the total solar radiation absorbed by the corn plant post-silking and yield. Note high R2
Read 12 tweets

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