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Ophir Gottlieb Profile picture
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28 Sep, 7 tweets, 2 min read
A short thread

$ONDS

We learned some things today:

1. Pricing and margins of each Scout

* $50K ARR, $250K TCV (five-year deals)
* Cash flow margin 72% 😮

/1
A short thread

$ONDS

2. TAM for @AmericanRobotic

* About $115 billion

/2 Image
A short thread

$ONDS

3. Guidance for @AmericanRobotic

* 2022: $2.5M ARR
* 2024: $40M ARR
* 2026: $200M ARR

/3
A short thread

$ONDS

4. All of the three above imply cash margin dollars

2024: $28M
2026: $140M

/4
A short thread

$ONDS

5. Through 2024, the AR business is still smaller or on par with the other side of the business (not guided yet - these are estimates), in particular rail.

/5
$ONDS

6. We also believe that Ondas was able to acquire AR because FAA approval may have required a private network.

This is was a perfect match.

But...

/6
$ONDS

7. Guidance is not revenue.

This is a risky entity and to think otherwise is to be foolhardy.

Learn more at CMLPro.com

7/7

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More from @OphirGottlieb

Ophir Gottlieb Profile picture
24 Oct
Little thread for this glorious Sunday:

We likely seen an increase in demand (not just the quantity demanded), shifting the demand curve out. 

An increase in demand with supply unchanged rises prices. 

...

/1
But how long the increase in demand lasts determines how much and how long inflation persists.

COVID hits more than 2020. The impacts are far reaching and multi year. 

But, it does end. Normalcy does return. 

...

/2
How much non normalcy any investor can tolerate is personal. Less tolerant = less exposure. 

Answer for yourself, "has the world's consumer base  permanently changed its demand curve or is it non permanent?"

Then answer "for how long?"

...

/3
Read 12 tweets
Ophir Gottlieb Profile picture
28 Sep
Thread

$ONDS

One side of business is the only FAA approved drone system that can fly beyond visual line of sight (BVLOS) with no pilot.

This is a two-three year lead per the firm.

Now we have revenue guidance...

/1
$ONDS Forecasts for drones

Each 'unit' is $50K/ yr in ARR and $250K in total contract value (TCV).

That means 2024 guidance is:
* $40M ARR
* $200M TCV

2026:
* $200M ARR
* $1B TCV

But there's more...

We also have a TAM

/2
$ONDS

The TAM, for just this side of the business is over $100B.

ir.ondas.com/all-sec-filings

/3
Read 4 tweets
Ophir Gottlieb Profile picture
24 Sep
Thread

Many on Wall Street radically misunderstand where Internet infrastructure is going.

Myth:
Private cloud (on-prem) is dinosaur going the way of extinction to central cloud.

Fact:
True private cloud (TPC) has exploded. Forecast growth *greater* than central cloud.

/1
Not only is TPC exploding, but so too is the hybrid cloud, which is an infra architecture that uses both on-prem and central cloud.

...

/2
Furthering this discombobulated myth that on-prem is dying is another:

Myth:
Once in central cloud, no one looks back. It's all in and no private cloud once switch is made.

Fact:
Half(!) of central cloud only infra have deployed or are in the process of deploying HCI.

/3
Read 7 tweets
Ophir Gottlieb Profile picture
22 Sep
A thread

Bain Technology Reporrlt is out

bain.com/insights/topic…

/1
DevOps

/2
And more DevOps

/3
Read 6 tweets
Ophir Gottlieb Profile picture
21 Sep
@BatsGlobal @cboe has a bad price in $BIGC and the market API is stale.
Error:

Open":55.93,"Close":54.74,"High":56.03,"Low":52.88,"Last":54.74,

Those are yesterday's values.
Also wrong for $CURI
Read 4 tweets
Ophir Gottlieb Profile picture
21 Sep
Google Search 'tax' on successful companies is filthy and profitable. Amazon does same.

"Oh, your brand name carries weight? Good. Now others can use it as a search term. How much you gonna bid to keep yourself first in a search for... yourself?"

At some point, this shit ends
2/n
How much money does Amazon hand to Google for this ad a year?

Say... 100 million clicks x $3?

What's the value proposition offered here for consumers, exactly?
3/
Of course, when Googling 'Google,' no ads.
Read 4 tweets

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