Share this page!

Eric Balchunas Profile picture
Twitter logo
29 Sep, 4 tweets, 2 min read
The Bitcoin futures mutual fund that launched 2mo ago only has $15m in aum, VERY LOW considering the pent up demand. Here's a look at first 43 days of $BTCFX vs $BTCC (physical) in Canada (whose mkt is 27x smaller btw). Not sure if MF or futures is problem but poss bad sign..
The lack of interest is also despite the fact that it tracks spot bitcoin really well (which is arguably welcome news for futures etfs). I added $GBTC so you could see the dif. You'd think this would get more looks. I'm a little stunned frankly.
The lack of interest may actually calm SEC a bit (who prob worry about too much rush into ETFs). Thus, we sticking with our 75% chance that a bitcoin futures ETF is approved and launches in Oct/Nov with ProShares as huge favorite to be out first.
If you made it this far in the thread I would like to get your opinion on why you think $BTCFX has been ignored?

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Eric Balchunas

Eric Balchunas Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @EricBalchunas

Eric Balchunas Profile picture
29 Sep
New filing for "The Gen Z ETF"
Holds Gen Z stocks that are used by Gen Z or reflect their progressive values. "Gen Z is essentially a digital generation, who does not know a world before the Internet" Here's the Gen Z Scoring System:
Honestly this will prob do ok. Stocks young ppl are into tend to be tech advanced. Also the Millennials ETFs $MILN and $GENY have a combined $350m, solid. Also H/t to @SarahPonczek who pitched this in our ETF shark tank 3yrs ago.
Read 4 tweets
Eric Balchunas Profile picture
20 Sep
$SPY volume (the People's Fear Gauge) was over $70b today, well into the freak out zone. The last time $SPY traded this much was March 2020. Altho it's had a couple spasms since and nothing much came of it. The key is whether this volume is sustained vs one-off. Tomorrow imp.
$UVXY traded a ton too, most this year.. about $3b, which is 2x what it has in aum, ha.
Notable and somewhat unusual is that stocks didn't trade all that much eg $TSLA was most traded stock on day but w a mild $17b which is meh historically speaking. This tells me big traders/inst used $SPY to tweak a bit but were not 'bailing out on mkt' at all.
Read 4 tweets
Eric Balchunas Profile picture
15 Sep
Bitcoin Futures ETFs are about halfway through the 75 days it takes for SEC approval of a 40 Act fund. Here's earliest date they could (and are likely to be IMO) approved based on when they filed:
Note: the ProFunds Bitcoin Strategy Mutual Fund was launched 77 Days after filing. So these dates are not exact exact, but prob close IMO (altho I've been wrong handicapping this race before so.. )
To everyone crapping on this, I don't blame you. The SEC is literally Lucy with the football and we're all Charlie Brown. But.. they've already approved a 40 Act bitcoin futures MF and Genz said he 'looks fwd to 40 act bitcoin etf futures filings' That's decent evidence imo.
Read 4 tweets
Eric Balchunas Profile picture
23 Aug
There have been many 'Xerox' moments in the ETF industry but the GOAT has to be Nuveen filing for what would have been first bond ETF in 2000 and then balking bc worried about cannibalization/revenue. @tpsarofagis uses them in note today as case study for aspiring entrants.
Not to mention how balking chased away Bruce Bond and Hooten/Fulten who set up PowerShares and Claymore. Not a stretch to say had CEO had better vision, Nuveen could have been bigger than BlackRock. Good case study for all the legacy asset mgrs entering biz.
Also, Year 2000 (when Nuveen filed) has proven to be the best class of ETFs in terms of assets by far. That was when many stud products were launched (curr 2000 launches make up 14% of all aum). The assets per launch class have dwindled since. Great chart from @tpsarofagis
Read 6 tweets
Eric Balchunas Profile picture
1 Jul
Out with a note today predicting that $VTI (not $IVV or $VOO) will knock off $SPY in assets within 5yrs and then remain King of ETFs for decades to come. Not exactly going out on limb as it is curr 3rd biggest but it is still a whopping $130b behind $SPY.
$VTI has taken a net $100b more than $SPY in past 3yrs.. check out this uptick in flow-age. Plus, its ability to take in cash in down markets (which have to come at some point, right?) will help it gain a lot of that ground when bull mkt subsidy is non-factor.
It will also benefit from a) ppl migrating from the $1T MF since it is cheaper share class now and b) lack of competition. $IVV & $VOO will slowly drain $SPY but then those two have to split the booty. $VTI is 8-10x bigger than any other total mkt ETF, gets lion's share of flows.
Read 4 tweets
Eric Balchunas Profile picture
28 Jun
BOOM: ARK files for a bitcoin ETF (in collab with 21Shares). This would be bitcoin ETF filing #12. Image
While semi-shock, kinda makes sense as Cathie is on the board of 21Shares, which is a progressive bitcoin ETP issuer in Europe. They get US penetration and ARK can use own fund in their active ETFs. This pod/thread has good background on 21Shares ICYI:
While this def adds to excitement, I have recently become less bullish on bitcoin ETF approval the more I come to think SEC has hands tied by bigger forces in US gov. Thus, I think ETF may be in holding pattern until there's some kind of reg framework or crackdown on crypto. Image
Read 6 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Like this author's thread?

Get emails when @EricBalchunas has new unrolls!

Check out other threads from @EricBalchunas!

Read all threads by @EricBalchunas

:(