There have been many 'Xerox' moments in the ETF industry but the GOAT has to be Nuveen filing for what would have been first bond ETF in 2000 and then balking bc worried about cannibalization/revenue. @tpsarofagis uses them in note today as case study for aspiring entrants.
Not to mention how balking chased away Bruce Bond and Hooten/Fulten who set up PowerShares and Claymore. Not a stretch to say had CEO had better vision, Nuveen could have been bigger than BlackRock. Good case study for all the legacy asset mgrs entering biz.
Also, Year 2000 (when Nuveen filed) has proven to be the best class of ETFs in terms of assets by far. That was when many stud products were launched (curr 2000 launches make up 14% of all aum). The assets per launch class have dwindled since. Great chart from @tpsarofagis
Here's Tim Hooten (who also left Nuveen after the CEO got cold feet): "I truly believe if Nuveen had gone into ETFs then, it would be bigger than Barclays (iShares) in terms of ETFs and assets." via @Lawrence_Carrel's ETF book
That said they still have a sweet $1.2T in total assets (the bull mkt subsidy makes strategic errors much less impactful than they would be in other industries). As well as $4.6b in ETF assets, albeit that's less a 0.1% mkt share.
Correction: *Dave Hooten
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Bitcoin Futures ETFs are about halfway through the 75 days it takes for SEC approval of a 40 Act fund. Here's earliest date they could (and are likely to be IMO) approved based on when they filed:
Note: the ProFunds Bitcoin Strategy Mutual Fund was launched 77 Days after filing. So these dates are not exact exact, but prob close IMO (altho I've been wrong handicapping this race before so.. )
To everyone crapping on this, I don't blame you. The SEC is literally Lucy with the football and we're all Charlie Brown. But.. they've already approved a 40 Act bitcoin futures MF and Genz said he 'looks fwd to 40 act bitcoin etf futures filings' That's decent evidence imo.
Out with a note today predicting that $VTI (not $IVV or $VOO) will knock off $SPY in assets within 5yrs and then remain King of ETFs for decades to come. Not exactly going out on limb as it is curr 3rd biggest but it is still a whopping $130b behind $SPY.
$VTI has taken a net $100b more than $SPY in past 3yrs.. check out this uptick in flow-age. Plus, its ability to take in cash in down markets (which have to come at some point, right?) will help it gain a lot of that ground when bull mkt subsidy is non-factor.
It will also benefit from a) ppl migrating from the $1T MF since it is cheaper share class now and b) lack of competition. $IVV & $VOO will slowly drain $SPY but then those two have to split the booty. $VTI is 8-10x bigger than any other total mkt ETF, gets lion's share of flows.
BOOM: ARK files for a bitcoin ETF (in collab with 21Shares). This would be bitcoin ETF filing #12.
While semi-shock, kinda makes sense as Cathie is on the board of 21Shares, which is a progressive bitcoin ETP issuer in Europe. They get US penetration and ARK can use own fund in their active ETFs. This pod/thread has good background on 21Shares ICYI:
While this def adds to excitement, I have recently become less bullish on bitcoin ETF approval the more I come to think SEC has hands tied by bigger forces in US gov. Thus, I think ETF may be in holding pattern until there's some kind of reg framework or crackdown on crypto.
Ironically, the $MAGA ETF is crushing since Biden won, up 45%, double SPX and Dow, easily beating RSP, SUSA. It just holds all the right the stuff rn (industrials, energy, financials, value & no tech/comm) thx to strategy of screening for cos that donate the most to GOP..
Here's the relative sector differences with the S&P 500, which was poison under Trump but gold under Biden. What a world.
Meanwhile, clean energy has lagged since Biden won despite the perfect narrative..
There's outright feeding frenzy going on for value ETFs rn, which have taken in about $5b in past week (that's a good month) and $20b YTD (nearly an ann record 10wks in). All in all 80 value ETFs have taken in cash. Here's a look at where the money is going $EFV $VTV $VLUE $IWN
Interesting (and yet kinda predictable) most of the cash is going to the watered down value ETFs even tho the pure stuff is popping WAY MORE. Here's a look at the Top 4 Value ETFs in our "intensity rank" vs $IWD & $VTV which rank near bottom.
Gotta say our BI factor intensity rank f-ing nailed it. The YTD returns (prev tweet) exactly match the ranking (which was done ahead of time using combo of volatility, # of holdings and loading). Nice work @tpsarofagis
$SLV took in almost a BILLION dollars Friday, nearly double the old record for this 15-yr old ETF, after being targeted by WSB as way to go after the banks..