We receive quite a few submissions applying some flavor of ML/AI to weather forecasting. Most we decline, because the general point has been made that the technique works, and at least for @nature there usually isn't a case for another demonstration.
This one was different. First because it addressed a long-standing challenge in NWP. Second - and really intriguing for me - is that a key evaluation came from human weather forecasters, who judged the deep learning forecasts to be more useful/realistic than other approaches.
The paper follows on from a couple others I've handled on the overall topic of ML/DL/AI in geosciences: rdcu.be/cyE7M and rdcu.be/cyE7N
Definitely interested in the topic going forward but increasingly we're looking for major advances, rather than demonstrations that the approach works.
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Thread. @nature encourages authors to recommend and exclude reviewers. My personal views on the strategies that are likely to increase/decrease the chances of your recommendations being taken up ... #peerreview#scicomm#climatetwitter
What to do …
Recommend scientists with minimal connections to the author group. One could argue that your previous co-authors, advisors, etc. will be familiar with your work and are therefore well placed to comment. But I will worry about a personal COI.
Thread. @nature has a huge amount of content. Confused about what our various categories mean? You’re not alone! Sure we have a guide to authors, but it is, ahem, a bit formal. Here’s a blast through our various categories.
First, content that is not normally submitted by scientists (i.e. we write ourselves, or commission) …
Editorials. Wide ranging but often we discuss a timely issue and tell someone or something what we think they should do. nature.com/articles/d4158…
Thread. I go to a lot of meetings where I have only a modest level of knowledge about the field. Which is great, because then I learn a lot. But I don’t understand the main point of many talks. #DarkConfessions#scicomm
For a long time, I reckoned this was just me, and my ignorance of community-specific jargon. Also, #ImposterSyndrome. Editors have it too.
Anyway, I began to confess my lack of understanding to other audience members, and ask them for an explanation. Turns out, many of them also did not understand the talks. At all.
Some notes on #AERE2019 coming your way! Climate, economy, agriculture, social cost of carbon and more.
Kevin Rennert from @rff: social cost of carbon estimates need GDP estimates to ~2300. Based on estimated growth rates, you can get $10 billion/yr GDP per capita! So...elicitation in progress to constrain statistical estimates of GDP.
Cool intercomparison tool: mimiframework.org allows easy comparison of DICE FUND and PAGE IAMs and their SCC estimates.
Keynote by David Pyle at #VICS2019: many volcanic eruptions are explicable, but not predictable.
Andrew Schurer #VICS2019: are we sure that the Tambora eruption caused the 1816 “year without a summer”? Not sure, and changes in circulation *can* produce similar conditions. But Tambora-like eruptions make the cold summer in Western Europe about 10-100 times more likely.
Alan Robock #VICS2019: summer of 1783 was quite hot in Western Europe, despite the huge Laki eruption. Basically, natural variability leading to a hot summer overwhelmed whatever cooling effect Laki would have produced.
I’ve handled the review of > 1000 papers at @nature. Over time, you notice aspects of presentation on which reviewers tend to comment. In the interests of minimizing hassles during review, I offer the following suggestions (a bit targeted to climate papers).
Double space: make it easy on the reader (and editor) by double spacing the entire text, including references and figure legends.
Use big fonts: again, make the paper easy to read. Tracking 30 words across one line in a tiny font is hard, especially if you are reading for hours at a time. Instead, use a font that provides about 12-15 words per line of text.