A confession that I want to approach respectfully (but honestly). When I compare the radicalization story of my (20-year younger) former self to the radicalization stories of people who got sucked into white supremacism, one main difference really surprises me
What truly surprised me was that while my sense of grievance (as a Palestinian Arab Muslim kid growing up in the Middle East) was based upon real, hard stuff. Meanwhile theirs was based upon "feeling" persecuted. It just seems to me that what broke my psyche was far heavier stuff
Obviously this is a very personal observation and I could be very wrong. It could be that I'm not empathetic enough with their experiences; or these experiences could be distant. I only intimately know my own story. I'm just putting this out there to see how right or wrong I am
But interesting to ask this question at scale. Are people who get radicalized due to immense pressure more de-radicalizable than those who get radicalized absent immense pressure? After all if it's immense pressure, the pressure can ease or normalize or counter-balance somehow
*In 2015 (in the context of ISIS) I noted that people who get radicalized due to "local grievances" (family killed, displaced from homes, property stolen etc) are actually *less* ideological and more de-radicalizable than the foreign fighters who are coming from Western countries
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A big part of my daily reading/writing is about the future (as a strategist, this is what I do). Lately, this is leaving me with a deep feeling of sadness. The MENA lies at the intersection of every bad trend that defines humanity's future yet is not part of the conversation.
Climate change? Water stress? Ecology collapse? Desertification? Food security? Refugee & migrant movements? Economic inequality? Social inequality? Demographic transitions? Mental health? Intergenerational trauma? We're at the nexus of all of them
And yet we're locked out of the conversation because we are led by dictatorships gripped by strategic nihilism, dictators who no longer care about the future of the region, only about the future survival of their power and privilege. They're sending us to hell and we have no say
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I have to admit I am developing a preference for threads because they are compact. There's just *so* much information to consume daily that I no longer have the patience for long-form narrative/storytelling formats (except perhaps as a downtine activity)
For some reason, over the past few weeks I've been fascinated by Flat Earther videos (did quite a number on my Youtube homepage). I guess I should write a bit about what I saw but here's a few quick thoughts
1. It's a modern movement. They aren't holdovers from a previous historical or traditional movement. This tells you something - if this is a modern movement then the reasons it exists are also modern issues
2. They actually *do* seem to obsess over "evidence". Only, they twist it around in a clever way. "Evidence" for them is redefined to "whatever can change my mind" (and since nothing can, then problem solved)
Optimism is not a plan. Anger is not power. Euphoria is not a national vision. Emotions are not a roadmap.
Mental prisons are more oppressive than physical prisons. And the worst prisons are those we build for ourselves
I'm a strategist. My job is to live in the future. To look at the big picture, to see everything as a trend, to think 20 moves ahead (and 20 years ahead). My brain is wired this way now.
Very quick stream of consciousness (again), apologies in advance for all the typos, mistakes, inaccuracies etc. Among Islamist militants there have been (generally) two models:
The Caliphate model calls for the establishment of a global empire (although they'll resent the word "empire"). The Emirate model calls for the establishment of local rule (a state with limited borders) and a governance model, sometimes as the goal, sometimes as a start.
ISIS generally represents the first model. The Taliban represents the second model. ISIS refers to itself as Dawlat al-Khilafa (the Caliphate state). The Taliban's official name for Afghanistan is "the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan".