Lets play a little game.......what you see is the UK y/y house price change. We going to guess what happened from macro-standpoint around these 4 turning points in house price trend....who wants to play? #trading #economics Image
Point 1: #BOE increases there QE programme by additional 50bn and signals more easing to come in pipeline in order to ensure inflation doesn't drop below 2% Image
Point 2: #Carney surprises the markets turning hawkish. But note , house prices were up 11% in the prior year and #BOE was getting nervous about a big old bubble!!! ImageImage
Point 3: #BOE discussing negative rates as possibility. At same time governor #bailey pumps another 100bn QE and says they no financing government. Image
Point 4: #BOE turns hawkish as inflation expectations 5y5y breakevens head toward 4%!!! Image
Conclusion: NEVER listen to an estate agent. They are not economists. They are great for understanding short term stock/flow(6months). But beyond that they are about as useful as ......(fill in your own blanks)! That said. Recognise this is a MAJOR top for global property markets
If you are buying now, you have an excessively high risk of being in negative equity for the next decade. Whilst i respect everyone buys property for different reasons. I equally want people to recognise property is not risk-free trade!
Dont be suprised to see flat or negative real returns for property for next 10years. In otherwords, property will struggle to outpace #inflation over next 10years! YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED!!!

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More from @Trader_Bran

30 Oct 20
Im going to give you a free trade opportunity today but first a free lesson in market observation....
Why are the bonds offering, despite the aggressive sell-off in risk? If you can answer this then the easiest trade opportunity will present itself...
I will give you a clue......what is the play for bonds if the democrats clean sweep the election next week?
Ok so clean sweep for democrats and we have massive steepner in US curve. WHy. Because stimulus will come thick and fast. Note the curve steepened aggressively at start of Oct when the biden/trump spread widened. It reversed at start of week but this was opp to put steepener
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