My prepping mantra: "on-time is late, and early is on-time." You have to prepare when it seems a little bit crazy to do so, b/c if you wait for the moment it makes total sense, it's too late.

Right now is the time to to prep for severe, life-altering supply chain disruptions.
It still seems kinda crazy to prep for a scenario where grocery store shelves in your area are bare of many staples, and/or food prices have skyrocketed. It may feel nuts to prep for a period of chaos or near-chaos. That just means you're on-time, though.
I'm not saying chaos is coming, but there are significant risks (as the article in the OT by @jcenters details) of a complete supply chain meltdown as we head into winter. Now is the time to quietly & calmly hedge that risk. Don't wait until it's clear you need to stock up.
@jcenters All the stuff you'd buy based on the link above will still be edible many months from now. So this isn't even about buying extra -- it's about pulling some of your food consumption forward in time. Think of it as "flatten the curve," but for food & other consumables.
@jcenters Don't buy doomsday food -- freeze-dried, MREs, etc. Just buy shelf-stable pantry food that you'll actually eat & that you can cook in your kitchen. 4 or 5 months of shelf stability is good enough. No need to get crazy.

But do it now. Today. This weekend.
Even absent a full-blown supply chain meltdown, a food panic would have the same impact. You know how shelves looked scary when ppl stocked up for lockdowns in early 2020? Imagine that same level of buying, but with today's diminished inventories.
Print this out & take it to the store with you. Cross off the items as you get them. theprepared.com/homestead/guid…

I hope you have no occasion to thank me later for this, & in fact you hate me because you feel foolish for getting worked up over nothing. But hope is not a plan.
I look forward to getting many dunks in the spring from this thread. I pledge to leave it up. Bookmark it, & if nothing happens, dunk away. That would be awesome. I pray this is a dumb thread & we all have a laugh over it as we choke down an unending supply of doomsday lentils.

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More from @jonst0kes

1 Oct
The anniversary of the weirdest, most outlier mass shooting in US history. I don't have time for a comprehensive thread, but a few thoughts on this shooting and the gun control wars.
The Vegas shooter (I won't tweet his name because screw that guy) was rich, & could've afforded the $10K+ for a legit fully automatic weapon. He also could've passed the NFA background check. He also could've just modified his AR-15 for full-auto.

Yet he used a bump stock?!
A bump stock is & was a YouTube gimmick. It's just a way to vaguely simulate full-auto fire, but it's inaccurate & is really only good for mag dumps. So why did he do this? It certainly wasn't for lethality or max body count. Was it for theater?
Read 17 tweets
29 Sep
Our military has a lot to answer for right now, but there's 1 question that's apparently so nuts that nobody w/ has pressed them about on the record: why were high-lvl Pentagon brass & Podesta secretly talking to a former Blink 182 bandmember about UFOs?

Back in 2011, when Tom Delonge (the aforementioned rock-in-roller) appeared on Art Bell's show raving about gods, demons, UFOs, & his secret conversations w/ top NASA & MIL officials, it was a hoot. Why would the Pentagon be talking to him? Delusional! coasttocoastam.com/show/2011-12-1…
Delonge kept on about this for years, giving one off-the-wall interview after another about secret crashed UFO recovery programs, clandestine meetings with generals & military contractors, etc. It was all very easily (& properly) dismissed. coasttocoastam.com/guest/delonge-…
Read 14 tweets
28 Sep
This is a chart of urea prices for the past year, from $256/ton to $445/ton. Urea is the main component in DEF, which all new diesel engines need for their emissions systems. This is another reason why transport costs are climbing, & it's related to the natgas prices.
More on urea prices here: ttnews.com/articles/exper…
Not only is DEF expensive, but the DEF sensors in these trucks -- the ones that warn when DEF is low and actually slow the engine down unless it's refilled -- are out of stock thanks to supply chain issues, & this is keeping trucks parked. ttnews.com/articles/diese…
Read 4 tweets
28 Sep
Basically, scenes from Europe are gonna be nuts this winter. My big worry for us here in the states is food, tho. Natgas is where we get the nitrogen to make fertilizer. hpj.com/crops/natural-…
I dunno about you guys, but if it all goes sideways here over energy Imma blame the anti-nuclear activists. This is in their lap.
Read 5 tweets
27 Sep
This is the level of sophistry that most AI ethics discourse operates at. To unpack this: they argue that basic facial recognition tech of the kind that unlocks your iPhone is an example of "physiognomic AI" because it infers "are these pixels a face or not?" & extrapolates depth
If you're thinking that surely the cannot be arguing that basic iPhone unlocking tech is an example of "physiognomy" that should be banned by law, behold:
The stuff in this paper isn't just farce tho -- it's also tragedy. There are actual, honest-to-God examples of physiognomic AI in the paper -- not the ridiculous FRT stuff, but actual "let us measure the skull to determine criminality" type stuff. But the sophistry...
Read 9 tweets
19 Sep
Lotta good responses here, but also:

- Supply chain is a pipeline, & some of what we're seeing now is just problems that started last year popping out the other end.
- China's manufacturing centers have been hit by heavy flooding & Delta. Also their shipping is hit by Delta.
- Other ports & manufacturing centers have been taken offline by Delta (I think Viet Nam & Indonesia are worst affected, but I may be recalling incorrectly).
- The system was already fragile, & Delta + aforementioned time-delay-based shocks hurt it even worse.
- In general, the system is complex, highly interconnected, & prone to cascade effects & crashes. So failure modes are hard to predict & even reason about in real time.
- Shipping will remain constrained until COVID is over because the cartels don't want to increase capacity...
Read 7 tweets

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