It's been almost exactly 6 months since I started by Substack. Here is what I've learnt so far. (1/x)
Substack is a new platform. Many niches are still up-for-grab.
I was hoping that "Asia-Pacific value stocks" would be enough of a niche so that I could survive as a Substack writer. It worked. Substack is now my full-time profession.
Branding: A friend recommended "The 22 immutable laws of marketing". Brilliant.
Create a visual design language that's both distinctive and provokes the right associations.
Pick an easy-to-remember name. In hindsight, "Asian Century Stocks" is probably too generic / long.
Growth has been good. 180 paid subscribers at this point (including free trials).
BUT - it didn't feel this way. For 5-6 weeks this summer I had zero growth in the number of paid subscribers.
Just keep at it. I was lucky enough to have Swen Lorenz recommend me => growth +50%.
A smart fellow Substack writer told me I produce quality research but that I'm mediocre at marketing myself. He's absolutely right.
There are certain tricks one can use:
• Cross-postings with other Substacks
• Free trials to journalists and hope for a mention
• Podcasts
That said, just do whatever you feel comfortable with.
I know that I'm a sceptical person- I'll never be a true bull market believer. Defensive, undervalued high-quality stocks are my sweet spot.
That's okay. There's enough of an audience of those who appreciate such ideas too.
All the free posts are shared on the following platforms. They help bring in new subscribers:
• Twitter
• Facebook
• Reddit
• LinkedIn
• Hacker News
• Smartkarma
I learnt a few technical tips and tricks:
• Since English is not my native language, I learnt to use Grammarly to create coherent writing. Short simple sentences. Read Tim de Lisle's How to Write Well.
• Break up text through bullet points/pictures. No one wants a wall of text.
Since I joined the buy-side in 2010, I've always been a generalist.
It's hard to compete with sector experts such as Mintzmyer in shipping or Front Month in exchanges.
If you are a generalist, focus instead on 1) identifying high-quality companies 2) sparking the initial idea.
There are two tiers in Substack equity research: 1. Proprietary ideas that generate alpha. Pricing power: very high. 2. Baseline research, the same type of stuff you can find on the sell-side. Pricing power: 🤷♂️
I'm still proving myself in category #1.
There are also other services you can provide to your subscribers:
• Tailored solutions for each subscriber
• IRL meet-ups
• Shared portfolio (coming soon)
• Community. Eg, I just launched a private Telegram chat group for paying subscribers.
Feel free to reach out if you have any questions...
It's not easy - but possible. And I absolutely love focusing 90% of my time on research rather than corporate politics / admin / noise. And I met some great people who taught me a lot. Happy to pass on that knowledge.
Link to my Substack by the way, in case you are interested:
2/ Product portfolio:
• Liquid milk (72% of sales): Ultra milk, Ultra Mimi (for children), condensed milk
• Tea and health drinks (19% of sales): Jasmine tea, mung bean and tamarind drinks.
• Other (7.4% of sales): Production for 3rd parties such as Unilever
3/ Competitive position:
• Indonesia's largest dairy brand ("Ultra Milk") with 40% market share in liquid milk
• Strength in UHT milk, which has shelf life of 6-9 months at room temperatures (convenient)
• Also has a presence in RTD tea with Teh Kotak
5.3 trillion cigarettes are sold each year to 1 billion smokers. Would be unwise to exclude the industry from your universe just because of ESG / unpopularity.
While volumes have dropped globally, retail value has stayed flat. It would have increased was it not for the stronger dollar since 2014.
How to brainwash someone:
• Compel the person to make an inconsequential statement
• Dig deeper and ask the person to make other related statements that are increasingly at odds with the person's beliefs
• Constant repetition until the person's self-image has changed