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Fritz (Michael Fritzell) Profile picture
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3 Oct, 5 tweets, 2 min read
Had to buy it
15 years of Asian stock movements
The first Asian stock market was in Mumbai, set up in 1875
Shanghai Customs House, where the first shares were traded in 1865. Dominated by rubber companies. By 1910, 47 rubber companies were listed.
Average index P/E by market.

Top:
• Shenzhen
• India
• Indonesia

Bottom:
• Hong Kong
• Singapore
• Bangladesh

• • •

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More from @Fritz844

Fritz (Michael Fritzell) Profile picture
1 Oct
It's been almost exactly 6 months since I started by Substack. Here is what I've learnt so far. (1/x)
Substack is a new platform. Many niches are still up-for-grab.

I was hoping that "Asia-Pacific value stocks" would be enough of a niche so that I could survive as a Substack writer. It worked. Substack is now my full-time profession.
Branding: A friend recommended "The 22 immutable laws of marketing". Brilliant.

Create a visual design language that's both distinctive and provokes the right associations.

Pick an easy-to-remember name. In hindsight, "Asian Century Stocks" is probably too generic / long. Image
Read 13 tweets
Fritz (Michael Fritzell) Profile picture
19 Sep
Ultrajaya Milk (ULTJ IJ) elevator pitch (1/x) Image
2/ Product portfolio:
• Liquid milk (72% of sales): Ultra milk, Ultra Mimi (for children), condensed milk
• Tea and health drinks (19% of sales): Jasmine tea, mung bean and tamarind drinks.
• Other (7.4% of sales): Production for 3rd parties such as Unilever Image
3/ Competitive position:
• Indonesia's largest dairy brand ("Ultra Milk") with 40% market share in liquid milk
• Strength in UHT milk, which has shelf life of 6-9 months at room temperatures (convenient)
• Also has a presence in RTD tea with Teh Kotak Image
Read 11 tweets
Fritz (Michael Fritzell) Profile picture
31 Aug
Summary of the book Spotify Inifrån (~Spotify analysed from within):
Seems to me that record labels used to hold the bargaining power, whereas today the digital service providers (Spotify, etc) do.
cc: @SleepwellCap
Read 4 tweets
Fritz (Michael Fritzell) Profile picture
30 Aug
Agree on this... His views seem superficial
The take rate is not high... But to have confidence in the take rate you'd have to believe in the AUM number.

Are we sure cloud is not loss-making due to "national service", similar to Tencent's support of China's police IT infrastructure?
Would rather look at loss-making investments on a case by case basis. The unit economics may or may not work.
Read 15 tweets
Fritz (Michael Fritzell) Profile picture
19 Aug
Asian tobacco:

5.3 trillion cigarettes are sold each year to 1 billion smokers. Would be unwise to exclude the industry from your universe just because of ESG / unpopularity.
While volumes have dropped globally, retail value has stayed flat. It would have increased was it not for the stronger dollar since 2014.
Volumes are weak in Japan and flattish in Asia EM
Read 8 tweets
Fritz (Michael Fritzell) Profile picture
18 Aug
How to brainwash someone:
• Compel the person to make an inconsequential statement
• Dig deeper and ask the person to make other related statements that are increasingly at odds with the person's beliefs
• Constant repetition until the person's self-image has changed
Source: Cialdini's book (1/3):
Source: Cialdini's book (2/3):
Read 4 tweets

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