Thread by @Neoavatara

So on COVID...this was interesting.

This is Michigan. Look at the current wave. They are clearly having a wave right now, as the rise in hospitalizations show.

BUT...the rate of increase is far less than the Spring surge.

This is what you'd expect with more vaccinations.

This is easier to see because MI had a third, smaller wave this Spring.

But similar trend even in Ohio, which has similar vaccination rates.

There is more noise here in the graph for West Virginia, which is experiencing a serious wave..but same overall trend.

Here is Hawaii...they look different. My guess is because they never got hit last year with a big wave, so natural immunity + vaccinations isn't enough to slow down the growth curve. Maybe.

So my guess (ONLY A GUESS) is states that have both high vaccination rates and endemic immunity are going to see the least serious illness.

Those with ONLY EITHER high vaccine rates or high endemic rates will still see big surges.

Again, its all a spectrum.