• 7 out 10 respondents said achieving capital gains (not income) is the most important aspect when allocating to new alternative assets
• Many families are simply seeking good opportunities wherever they arise (not running a fixed portfolio)
• portfolio diversification (various funds, managers, global regions, asset classes, etc) and generating outsize returns are front of mind for most HNWIs & FOs
• In terms of sectors, Techonology is still the key focus, with the ongoing demand for venture capital deals/funds
• The key for most families is having access to the best-performing managers (most want to know that the fund managers they back are real rising stars)
• In times of crisis special situations & distressed credit funds should be an area of interest, and they have been popular
• most HNWIs & FOs are still interested in dislocation due to the pandemic impacting the real economy unlike public markets
• recent allocations include equity turnaround funds, traditional PE secondaries strategies, specialist secondaries providing liquidity, niche funds, etc
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Evergrande should have defaulted years ago, so this isn't a surprise.
As an investor, I do hope the Chinese don't follow the footsteps of the West, especially the Europeans, who bailed everything and everyone out — creating a zombie economy.
Risks haven't been there for only a month, they have been there for a long time.
If the Chinese economy goes through a property market de-leveraging, it will be very painful in the short term, but create a fantastic buying opportunity.
To become a great investor, focus on a multidisciplinary mindset (become a generalist).
"Most of us study something specific and don’t get exposure to the big ideas of other disciplines. We don’t develop the multidisciplinary mindset that we need to accurately see a problem."
"An engineer will often think in terms of systems by default.
A psychologist will think in terms of incentives.
A business person might think in terms of opportunity cost & risk-reward.
Through their disciplines, each of these people sees part of the situation."
Applying a "multidisciplinary mindset" forces inspiring portfolio managers to have knowledge in psychology & human behavior, ancient & modern history, fundamental securities analysis, accounting, macroeconomics, experience in negotiating, running a business, and so much more.
Our portfolio allocation is somewhat planned, but to a great extent very much accidental, as it's based upon "value" offered in different assets, regions & capital stack positions at any given time in the cycle.
In other words, it is more of an art than science.
It can be added that many other market participants do not behave under such mandate, since they are far more authoritarian in their allocation approach.
Rather than searching for value currently on offer, they'll keep buying overpriced assets as it's within their comfort zone.
Flexibility & patience are our edges to mitigate risks & outperform.
As public equities become overpriced we're likely to sidestep into real estate. And when it becomes overpriced, we'll consider special niches like litigation funding, mezzanine debt, or distressed PE deals.