Thread by @balajis

Interesting post.

But I don't think there's any point in going for the US national government. It is on track to notch world-historical defeats on both economic and military matters. Capturing it is catching a falling knife. Instead, focus on DAOs and startup cities worldwide.

https://twitter.com/Dominic2306/status/1444223680758824960

If you believe the premises, you believe the conclusion.

What's up? Tech, Bitcoin, China, India.
What's down? US economic, military, and demographic predominance.

Christian Brose is the former Staff Director of the Senate Armed Services Committee. By his own account he could see every line item of America's $700B defense budget, including all the confidential bits.

And this is from his book.
amazon.com/dp/B07W5DH8M6/

Over the last 30 years, the American foreign policy establishment has blown perhaps the biggest lead in human history. From the hyperpower that wins everywhere without fighting, to a declining power that fights everywhere without winning.

The domestic economic situation is more mixed, because the rise of tech was a strong point for the US.

But now a big group doesn't want immigrants, and another group is hostile to entrepreneurs, so on the margins the immigrant entrepreneurs will start companies elsewhere.

The US national government is what so many are fixated on, but what if it's actually a MacGuffin? What if it's a white elephant, if the game isn't worth the candle?

And while everyone has been fighting over it, what if billions have been building the future abroad and online?

You only take on a turnaround if it's actually possible to turn the thing around. If it's headed into the ground at a thousand miles per hour, at a trillion dollars per quarter, you just do what you can to plan for the crash.

One last point.

It's hard to go from 0-100. Tech companies, cryptocurrencies, & startup cities give the necessary experience to run network states.

Rather than slugging it out to capture a failing state, why not start a new city to see if it can be done? astralcodexten.substack.com/p/prospectus-o…

Btw, great turnarounds do happen. They aren't impossible.

But the US federal government's current combination of world-historical incompetence and ostensible omnipotence is an unstable state. One way or another, there will be a new equilibrium.

https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1267090136216375296?lang=en

Note that pockets of light do exist.

Reforms are being proven within the US in places like Miami & Wyoming, and internationally in spots like El Salvador & Switzerland.

But for those reforms to be adopted *nationally*, nature may need to take its course.

https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1400590402286018561

In other words: think subnational, international, and technological over national.

Focus on cities, states, other countries, and new technologies. Not the US federal government.