Trying to figure out where voters stand on Brexit is HARD. There are at least 7 groups of voters:
2016 REFERENDUM
- Leave
- Remain
- Registered, did not vote
- Invalid votes
OTHER
- Joined electoral register since 2016
- Came of voting age since 2016
- Died since 2016
2016 REFERENDUM
- Leave
- Remain
- Registered, did not vote
- Invalid votes
OTHER
- Joined electoral register since 2016
- Came of voting age since 2016
- Died since 2016
Out of those 7 groups, only one ("Leave") contains a big majority of people who are likely to still favour Brexit.
That's the group that the Tories and Labour seem to be fighting tooth and nail over.
Dead people cannot vote.
That leaves 5 groups almost totally sidelined.
That's the group that the Tories and Labour seem to be fighting tooth and nail over.
Dead people cannot vote.
That leaves 5 groups almost totally sidelined.
What else do we know?
Well, we know the people who've died are more likely to be old rather than young. And we know more old people than young voted Leave.
We also know that everyone who came of age since 2016 is young. And young people are more likely to be anti-Brexit.
Well, we know the people who've died are more likely to be old rather than young. And we know more old people than young voted Leave.
We also know that everyone who came of age since 2016 is young. And young people are more likely to be anti-Brexit.
We also know that, across the UK as a whole, a substantial majority of people believe Brexit is going badly/very badly. Not the same as wanting to reverse it - but better than nothing.
Finally, the tabloids and Tory apologists have begun to blame Brexit from time to time.
Finally, the tabloids and Tory apologists have begun to blame Brexit from time to time.
If you were hoping for a neat conclusion, I apologise: I don't have one.
But hopefully this thread has stimulated a bit of interest in exploring the makeup of a potential future "rebellion" beyond the hyper-simplistic Leave/Remain voter dichotomy.
But hopefully this thread has stimulated a bit of interest in exploring the makeup of a potential future "rebellion" beyond the hyper-simplistic Leave/Remain voter dichotomy.
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