First injections in the Moderna trial occurred between July 27 and October 30, 2020.
By April 13, 2021, 98% of the placebo group had been vaccinated. This is is 260 days after the first person got their first shot and 165 days after the last person did.
According to the Moderna paper, "Whether mRNA-1273 vaccination results in enhanced disease on exposure to the virus in the long term is unknown."
The long-term, like 759 days?
"Key limitations of the data are the short duration of safety and efficacy follow-up. The trial is ongoing, and a follow-up duration of 2 years is planned, with possible changes to the trial design to allow participant retention and ongoing data collection."
Nice job with that 759-day followup.
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I haven't read the other trials yet, but between the 6-month results of Modern and Pfizer we have, summed together, 31 vaccine deaths and 30 placebo deaths.
How many do we need to get statistical power for an all-cause mortality effect? Can we do that if we sum all the trials?
This has to keep in mind that the total mortality in the US was said to increase 17% last year, with 69% of that due to COVID, and the trials while primary prevention are done in high risk populations due either to age or comorbidities.
Population data predicts an 11% excess risk of death that the vaccines should wipe out 98% of.
Maybe @AviBittMD can do a power calculation? If not I'll try one when I actually get around to safety and efficacy.
In more neutral news, for Moderna there was no difference in clotting events (47 vaccine, 43 placebo, 0.3% of each group), there was no myocarditis at all, pericarditis occurred in two people in each group, and there was no difference in deaths.
16 people died in each group.
And in more COVID-related news, vaccine stayed at least 90% effective against symptomatic infection across the 5.8 months, 98.2% against severe COVID, and 63% against asymptomatic infection.
Limitations include that they do not report total suspected COVID. In the FDA review of Pfizer data, this was 20 times more common than COVID and the vaccine only reduced it 12%.
Similarly they do not report serious COVID-like illness.
I was starting to suspect PCR positivity is reduced based on a single shot 3x reducing it in their interim results, and that is consistent with Peter Doshi's criticism that the FDA's review of Pfizer vaccine shows 20-fold excess of "suspected COVID" over confirmed.
That latter point suggests that the vaccines are more powerful at reducing PCR positivity than symptoms.
This doesn't settle transmission for me though. I have a lot of work to do.
I don't have time to read this but am saving it for later. The abstract says that anaphylactic death is a rare reaction to COVID vaccines, and the precise rate is unknown, but [continued]
[continued] women around aged 40 and anyone with increased mast cell burden or histamine response is at higher risk, and anyone with known allergy to any ingredient in the vaccines should not be vaccinated. [continued]
[continued] CDC recommends anyone with a previous history of such reactions be supervised for 30 minutes.
Death may occur anywhere from 24-48 hours after the vaccination and requires an injection of epinephrine to stop it. [continued]
In solidarity of up to 30,000 NYC school staff losing their jobs Monday and with the people of Australia suffering under lockdown, we are meeting Monday at the Brooklyn DOE at 65 Court Street and marching 5 miles ultimately taking us to the Australian Consulate at 4 PM.
Vaccinated people who support choice, please come! Once boosters are required you too may be counted as unvaccinated. We need you.
School staff on the fence, who did it to keep your job, we need you! This is a choice we all deserve.
School staff who didn’t get it, there’s no day to take off Monday if you’re out of work, so please come. It’s not a lost cause. Lawsuits are ongoing.
Students, your teachers and you should have the same choices! We need your voice.
If you pre-ordered the book, are a Masterpass member, or have already bought the guide in the past, you received a free copy. Please check your email for details.
This guide provides my recommendations for nutritional and herbal defense against COVID. This version covers 41 randomized controlled trials, which are the gold standard of evidence, as well as many other studies providing context for interpreting the trials.