Not only would he lose, but such a lawsuit would likely backfire on him spectacularly.
(I first wrote about this in a Just Security piece.)
1/
2/ It's generally accepted that the privilege is held by the sitting president, and the Biden administration already said won't assert executive privilege over this material.
3/ So most likely his lawsuit would be thrown out on a motion to dismiss.
If the court DID consider his arguments, it would likely apply one of the exceptions and conclude that these records are not privileged.
4/ Under Nixon v. Sirica, the court could reject Trump’s claim on the grounds that the committee has made a “compelling showing of need.” casetext.com/case/nixon-v-s…
5/ Under Nixon v. Fitzgerald the court could find that the material isn’t privileged because it was not “in performance of [a President’s] responsibilities of office” or and “made ‘in the process of shaping policies and decisions.” supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/…
6/ Trump isn’t afraid to file lawsuits that are destined to lose—if he thinks such a lawsuit will buy him time.
But, if Trump brings this lawsuit, it would raise the question of whether the crime-fraud exception applies.
7/ While no court has yet specifically carved out a crime-fraud exception to the executive privilege, courts have come close. (US v. Nixon),
Presumably, a crime-fraud exception to executive privilege would function like the crime-fraud exception to attorney-client privilege.
8/ In other words, a judge would look at the material in camera (law.cornell.edu/wex/in_camera) to see if the documents contain evidence of wrongdoing.
Given what we already know, these documents are highly likely to contain evidence of criminal wrongdoing or unlawful conduct.
9/ Given what the committee has asked for, and what we know, there would certainly be evidence that Trump "induced" the obstruction of an official proceeding by disorderly conduct in a restricted building, thus violating:
18 U.S.C. 2
18 U.S.C. 1505
18 U.S.C. 1752
10/ I mean, that’s the least of it, right?
This means that if Trump brings a lawsuit to “protect” executive privilege, the lawsuit could trigger a finding from a court that the materials sought by the Select Committee contain evidence that Trump engaged in criminal behavior.
11/ Bingo.
Right out of the gate, a judge finds that there is evidence that Trump committed a crime. (It's not a finding of guilt, but imagine the headlines.)
This is why I don’t think he’ll dare bring such a lawsuit—at least if he has good lawyers advising him.
It will lose.
I thought about taking his complaint apart, but it seemed too easy. I guess it could be fun, though, right?
Trump doesn't tend to do well in court (understatement).
Scholar Hungarian scholar Balint Magyar offers a theory that explains why the US held out against the same tactics that caused other countries to collapse into autocracy.
His theory also explains why comparisons across nations don’t always work.
A key error here is that it assumes that the Electoral Count Act is illegal and assumes that states can set aside the laws they have on the books for allocating their electors.
In fact, rules governing the election have to be in place before the election.
The idea was to create chaos and give Trump's claim that he won the election more legitimacy.
He still wouldn't have stayed in the White House because this wouldn't have worked -- but it may have persuaded more people that Biden didn't win, which undermines the government.