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Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
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3 Oct, 5 tweets, 3 min read
I am a (minor) co-author on this agent-based modelling study looking at return to school in England (not yet reviewed)

Most important are relative differences in size for outcomes to compare diff strategies rather than absolute numbers.

Take aways are

medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
1. Vaccinating 12-17yr olds has a lot more impact than just vaccinating 16 & 17 year olds.

Note vaxxing all children is not currently possible (no authorised vax<12 yrs) but shows theoretical best case.
2. You can get significant reductions in cases & outcomes by using public health protections in schools - and given current situation (late & slow vax roll out) - these are a super important tool we could use right now.
3. In general infections increase in schools first, followed by infections in households - and then out into the wider community & older age groups.

Unvaccinated people face high risks this autumn with high case rates and hardly any public health protections.
Read more detailed threads from the lead authors @bnlawrence and @arnauquera here!


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More from @chrischirp

Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
2 Oct
1. THREAD on transparency & JCVI statements on teen vaccination.

This is *not* about the results of the risk benefit analysis but about the fact that 4 weeks after 3 Sept statement, the information we need to interpret & understand their analysis is missing.

14 Tweets (+2)
2. First off - in JCVI code of conduct, openess and transparency are required.

The code states that in any mathematical modelling (which risk/benefit is), the *full assumptions* should be given in sufficient detail to allow *full assessment*.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
3. The recommendations also say that the minutes of meetings should be published. While some delay is allowed, there have been NO minutes of JCVI meetings about Covid 19 since a February meeting, published in April.
app.box.com/s/iddfb4ppwkmt…
Read 16 tweets
Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
1 Oct
THREAD on a quick Covid update (mainly England):

TLDR: two epidemics really - one in under 18s (and their parents) which is bad and getting worse and the other in everyone else which is getting better.
First - vaccine uptake in 12-15 year olds in England hasn't really started. With such high rates in teens right now this feels like a missed opportunity :-/

1/12
Looking at cases by date of test for each home nation, England and Wales are going up and NI and Scotland coming down. NI seems to be plateauing though.

England and Wales might be peaking (for now at least) 2/12
Read 15 tweets
Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
29 Sep
THREAD (a bit delayed) on UK & covid:

TLDR: flattish cases overall are masking differences between nations, regions & age groups. And we're still out of whack with Europe.

1/20
Vaccination update to start:
we've got good vaccination coverage - and excellent in older age groups.

Almost 60% of 16/17 year olds have had one dose of vaccine in England (higher in Scotland). BUT 2/20
There are big gaps in full vaccination uptake between the most and least deprived communities, and lower uptake in ethnic minorities.

This hasn't really improved over the last 6 months - whatever is being tried doesn't seem to be working. 3/20
Read 20 tweets
Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
23 Sep
QUICK THREAD ON SCHOOLS (and vax):

Vaccines work *really* well in young people. They can and do prevent transmission in schools.

Unvaxxed kids in unmitigated schools and high community rates get infected. A LOT.

Let's compare England & Wales with Rep of Ireland. 1/5
In England, 50% of 16-17 yr olds had 1 dose by 2 September (more in 18/19 yrs). 10% of 15-19 yrs also a confirmed case since 1 May 2021 :-(
A high immunity group.
From early Sept, cases start dropping in 15-19 year olds.

BUT going up and higher than ever in 5-14 year olds. 2/5
In Wales, very similar thing happening - 17-24 year olds dropping a lot over past two weeks.

Meanwhile cases in 0-16 yr olds are climbing very fast and higher than ever. 3/5
Read 5 tweets
Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
20 Sep
The govt released a detailed comparison of children admitted to hospital between wave 1 (spring 2020) and wave 2 (winter 2021) on Friday.

Some things that stand out:

Large marjority (80%) were admitted BECAUSE of covid & almost 60% of children had no underlying conditions 1/3
Once again, we get more confirmation that children have COMMON SYMPTOMS that are NOT the ones govt uses to prompt a test. Eg, vomiting, stomach ache, diarrhoea & fatigue & cold symptoms.
Govt needs to update (and communicate) the symptom list. 2/3
Finally, kids needing hospital much more likely to be non-white and much more likely to be from deprived communities.

High infections in kids do not affect communities the same - a lesson govt still hasn't learned after year or doesn't care about. 3/3
Read 4 tweets
Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
17 Sep
THREAD:
It's tiring to be attacked as if I (and others) am an "extremist" on covid or with suggestions that I'm a mouthpiece for others... when actually I'm very mainstream and it's UK policy that isn't. 1/10
The government's science advisors, SAGE, have literally just warned that we are risking a rough winter through not implementing simple mitigations now
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl… 2/10
The British Medical Assocation have this week highlighted the ongoing burden of Covid on an NHS that is understaffed, underfunded and exhausted.

bma.org.uk/what-we-do/ann… 3/10
Read 10 tweets

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