The read that it's OK to delay the promised infrastructure vote because ultimately moderates will get a smaller BBB bill is not exactly right.
Think what most 2022 candidates truly wanted was a consensual process, like the ARP, and to avoid looking like Dems have run left.
For those running in 2022, sustained factional infighting needed to be avoided at all costs, as did anything that could be used by GOP to be able to say "see we were right - the socialists are taking over."
These concerns are just as/more important as the size of the package.
Not sure how we ended up with a process different from what created the American Rescue Plan. But during this period from late June on when the party struggles broke out, Biden's numbers have dropped 13 points on @FiveThirtyEight.
However we got here, it's critical we re-focus our public comms on the the things voters care about most - defeating COVID, a growing economy, tackling climate, improving health care.....
Every day we're not talking about these things we're losing.
Finally, Gavin Newsom's successful campaign gave us what could be a very powerful frame - lean into defeating COVID, promote the rest of our agenda, define them as extremists/unfit to govern.
We need to get that place and stay here as soon as possible.
Been amazing to watch the flood of polls hitting the center-left ecosystem this year.
What remains common, and arguably dangerous, is the failure of many to distinguish between what is popular and what is popular AND important, meaning that it could drive someone's vote. 1/x
Let's use latest @NavigatorSurvey data on what Dem voters want Biden/Congress to focus on:
COVID 75%
Jobs/Economy 51%
Climate/Weather 48%
Health Care 41%
Social Security/Medicare 28%
Afghanistan 25%
Natl Security 21%
What the clear dominance of COVID in the issue environment right now means that any poll testing Biden's agenda which does not test elements against COVID and the ARP-led recovery are painting a very incomplete picture, and may in fact be misleading. 3/x
Know that progressives believe they are helping Biden right now but voting down a major bi-partisan bill that the President said was critical to showing the world that American democracy can work doesn’t seem to be all that helpful.
Don’t know what’s going to happen, but if progressives vote down a core plank of Biden’s agenda not sure most voters are going to see it as helpful to the POTUS.
It also likely means they lose leverage over reconciliation process.
After a decade of GOP obstructionism/policy nihilism, Democrats are on the verge of having tackled a host of unaddressed challenges - COVID, climate, health care, infrastructure, an economy for all..
GOP extremism we're seeing now on COVID, our democracy no different from debt ceiling, stealing SCOTUS judges and where they've ended up on the economy, health care, immigration, climate, guns....
As I review in the thread below, what Dem voters want most from Washington is defeating COVID (by far and away most imp issue), creating an economy for all, tackling climate and improving health care.
I think people are exaggerating the potential electoral impact of not passing BBB. It is only a small part of how folks will see Dems next year. What matters is what parts of it pass, whether COVID is defeated, and whether the economy is doing better.
A reminder that Biden's domestic agenda is ARP + infrastructure + reconciliation + annual budget + more to come.
It's about defeating COVID, pivoting from Afghanistan, tackling climate, improving health care, modernizing our immigration system, creating prosperity for all...1/x.
In this recent @NavigatorSurvey poll, Dem voters wanted Biden/Congress to focus on:
COVID - 75%
Jobs/Economy - 51%
Climate/Extreme Weather - 48%
Health Care - 41%
everything else is much lower 2/x
As I show in this analysis of recent polling, Biden's approval rating is heavily dependent on his COVID performance. It is the #1 issue. It is what Democrats should be talking about, incessantly. 3/x