1/ I am a VC––and arguably have EVERY self-serving reason to not share this...
Yet a reputation for being intellectually honest, critical of hype and a lifelong student of human behavior + markets is better than EVER being a huckster promoter misleading followers…
2/ Excellent piece from longtime friend @andykessler—a tech savvy investor who also is a student of markets
(he made a fortune running money during the .com boom + as he once told me “got to keep the money”;)… wsj.com/articles/low-i…
3/
Andy notes:
Joby is worth more than Lufthansa, EasyJet and JetBlue.
Tesla is worth more than the next 6 automakers combined.
BYND (made with pea protein) is worth more than the entire market for peas eaten globally.
Yahoo was once $125B + AOL $200B, both 99% less today
1/ Any situation with disorder + chaos = DISASTER
Right now Afghanistan is disaster
2 waves are rolling
-Regret + anger (“all for what?”) + low military morale foment
-Rebukes of failed approach + coulda/shoulda op-eds + books from think tanks cement US embarassment…
2/
Dometically (+ internationally) politically it is big distraction for Blinken + Biden who are now on and will be on justifying- then apologist- defensive
—when they need to be focused on China.
Biden critics + the videos + images will be amplifyingly unrelenting
3/ China + Russia…will help amplify VERY aggressively
(using US social media accounts)
Russia already smearing Ashraf Ghani saying he filled helicopters with cash + fled (like banana republic dicatator)…
1/ Have appreciation, emapthy and undersattnding for our VETERANS right now.
The ‘decision’ to “withdraw” from Afghanistan is causing heartwrenching pain suffering, frustration, anger—so many sacrificed SO MUCH (and many sacrificed ALL from limbs to life)…
2/ The US / Pentagon could never admit this overtly
failed state in Afghanistan under Taliban will foment violent extremists as it has
and yet now China = greater U.S. priority
History shows nation fighting two fronts often flails
Crazy 💭Our enemy’s enemy may be our “friend”
3/ CCP may recognize Taliban if Kabul fails
But will Taliban? They need
-Opium trade to China
-there are 1M muslims in concentration camps on Afghanistan border
What if US “decision” was not haphazard but calculated
“Enough—make this China’s problem on the Western front”
10 Yrs ago Lux asked
Q: “What Sucks?” with nuclear.
A: waste
Lux tried to find a high-tech venture to fund. Finding none we started one.
We funded it, hired team, set budget for tech R&D, did M&A
And got VERY lucky. cen.acs.org/environment/po…
2/ One tech we had in our portfolio @ our venture (Kurion) pulled radioactive Cesium + Strontium from salt water. Nobody has this as nuclear reactor water is ~100% pure.
When Fukushima disaster struck, hundreds of milllions of gallons SEA WATER were dumped to prevent meltodown…
3/ This little US company with a TOTAL of $3M of invested capital ($1.5M from Lux and we owned 35% between common + preferred) funded at $3M pre…
ended up with $40M of EBITDA and sold to Veolia for ~10x.
Lux made 43x on that $1.5M which returned an early fund + then some