You want a strong currency, you export.

Nigeria technically has no exports apart from oil. This data map is 2019, and Cocoa is a "rounding error".

Keep in mind, Exports are NOT the only way to get forex, but so far, on exports, the nation has failed.

Data Source: Harvard KSG Image
It gets worse.

"Nigeria's⁩ largest goods exports are in ⁨low and moderate⁩ complexity products"

translation? anyone can export crude oil, the wealth is in adding value to the crude oil or cocoa exports Image
"Diversifying the economy" is all talk

The Nigeria economy is diversified, Oil is less than 15% of GDP. Problem is Nigeria has only one export source of Forex. Remove remittances, the Nigeria Naira will collapse.

The data shows Nigeria has put all its eggs in the oil basket Image
The Nigerian economy presently is INCREASING its reliance on crude oil, but its share of the global crude oil market is DECLINING.

Essentially, the fish is growing in a pond getting smaller and smaller....

Nigeria has not increased its share of any other export product. Image
This data is from 2019, the COVID recession happened in 2020.

In 2020, Nigeria is reported to have spent 98% of its revenues on debt servicing.

The Exchange rate is a fuel gauge, if the car is running low on gas, it shows. To keep the car moving, you put in fuel.

Period.

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More from @FinPlanKaluAja1

27 Sep
lets talk fx reserves

See the box on left called "Oil Revenues"?

When Nigeria sells Crude oil, it's paid to a JP Morgan/NNPC/CBN account in USD $

CBN then buys the $ from the Federation and gives the Federation account Naira. CBN then owns the Fx reserves, NOT the Federation
CBN's mandate is to maintain foreign reserves to promote monetary and price stability.

How? via Monetary means, it setting interest rates and exchange rates.
CBN really is very concerned with inflation, it wants it to stay low, it keeps it low by making cash "expensive"
If CBN believes inflation is going up? it raises rates (MPR) this makes cash expensive to get i.e bank interest.

if CBN want to boost the economy, it drops rates (MPR) this makes cash "cheap" to get so SMEs can grow
Read 7 tweets
27 Sep
Many hold economic views because of urban legends that are not factual.

I asked who sets exchange rates....CBN or NAFEX?..many voted CBN.

Many think SAP caused the problem, they don't realize SAP was the adjustment to fix the imported consumption that caused the problem
Some believe that a strong economy means a strong currency, yet China, Japan, Germany all exporters, all seek weak currencies, and Nigeria also exports her main produce in $.

Many prefer $1 to N1 to $1 to N500 because they can import cheaper, but net imports make you poorer.
Many believe the Foreign Reserves are savings, they they are owned and can be spent by the President.

They can't connect FPI to the reserves. They can't connect a strong Naira to the reserves.

Many don't understand the Naira a a 'derivative" of crude oil
Read 5 tweets
26 Sep
The Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP) is a Medium-Term Plan for 2017 – 2020, for the purpose of restoring economic growth while leveraging the ingenuity and resilience of the Nigerian people – the nation’s most priceless assets.

let us review it together.
"The ERGP has set a GDP growth target of 4.62 percent average annual growth between 2017 and 2020."

Economic growth has not approached 4% since 2017. Image
"The implementation of the Plan is projected to reduce unemployment from 13.9% as of Q3 2016 to 11.23% by 2020. This translates to the creation of over 15 million jobs during the Plan horizon or an average of 3.7 million jobs per annum. "

The unemployment rate is up Image
Read 9 tweets
25 Sep
Croissant about N824

Minimum wage N993,600 a month

(40 hrs a week, N414 exchange rate)

The issue is not just the exchange rate but the minimum wage. This is an entry level position with no experience required

The minimum wage in Nigeria is low, can't afford even a $1 to N414 Image
However minimum wage can't rise until productivity rises, you can't pay an elevator operator in Nigeria N900k a month.

At N35,000 a month minimum wage, consumption is suboptimal.

Productivity improvements cause wages to rise.

So who do you raise productivity? Image
To improve productivity is to do more with same or less.

E.g mechanized agriculture with all year irrigation & better seeds, raises yield per plot, makes farmers richer.

Richer farmers spend more, more demand creates more jobs to meet demand, and a positive cycle develops. Image
Read 4 tweets
25 Sep
Review of the Nigerian Economy Q1 2021

Total Imports: N6.85t
Total Exports: N2.90t

Trade Deficit of N3.94t

As Nigeria imports more, the currency gets weaker as more N is needed to buy same $.

This is why Naira sells for N570 in the black market
Let's talk exports....

Crude oil exports : 66%
Non oil export: 33%

Nigeria is still a mono export nation. This means that fx earnings are tied tightly to only one product, crude oil and gas.
Let's talk debt

Local debt: Increase of N490b
Foreign debt: Decrease of $488m

Nigeria is exposed to

Multinational 54%
Wall Street (Eurobond) 32%
None Paris Bilateral 12%

Watch the Eurobonds, that's the most expensive component.
Read 7 tweets
10 Sep
A stablecoin is a cryptocurrency backed by reserves.

If I create eKalu currency it's worthless 😭. if I create eKalu currency backed by $, it's the same as $.

These Nigerian currency notes was backed by gold, you take note to CBN & redeem for gold worth £1 and 5 shillings.
This was the same in other nations.

US Dollar was also backed by gold.

Hence you see "will pay to bearer on demand" $5 in gold
In 1971, Nixon removed the $ from direct convertability. The Dollar was now backed by "full faith"....no "promise" to convert to gold
Read 8 tweets

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