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Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡 Profile picture
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4 Oct, 8 tweets, 3 min read
We're in a new Brexit world...

Paraphrased: "Brexit pain is real, but it's a necessary stepping stone towards the high-wage economy of tomorrow."

That is the stance being adopted by the Tories at their conference.

It deflects all criticism, because the sacrifice is "worth it".
In this new Brexit world, you no longer need to secure the flagship trade deals that were put forward as a key part of the old Brexit offering...

"Truss: US trade deal is not 'be-all and end-all' for Britain"
mailplus.co.uk/edition/news/p…
In this new Brexit world, you no longer need to keep the Special Relationship ticking over...

"UK Brexit minister Lord Frost warns Joe Biden to stay out of Northern Ireland talks"
independent.co.uk/news/uk/politi…
In this new Brexit world, you no longer need to live up to your international commitments. It's ok to be a pariah state...

"Conservative conference: Brexit chief Lord Frost gives EU one month to change Brexit deal on Northern Ireland"
inews.co.uk/news/politics/…
And in this new Brexit world, if the high-wage economy of the future never materialises, it's down to unproductive firms and a lazy British population shirking the work you need them to do.

But it's never, ever, ever down to the decisions you took along the way.
It's all nonsense of the highest order. Deplorable nonsense.

But politically, it's great judo.

It's much much harder to attack with "Brexit's doing this" when your opponent has already pointed to the damage as a badge of honour, to be worn on the journey to the sunlit uplands.
Everything else I wanted to say on the subject is covered by my earlier thread, below.

So instead of repeating myself even more, could I please gently point you towards it?
I've expanded on the themes in this thread, and gone a lot further, in the article linked to below... Please take a look!
link.medium.com/EKYTk1qT5jb

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Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡 Profile picture
5 Oct
Read the main front page headline in the Telegraph today... then read my article!

The Tories have carefully, deliberately, cynically shifted the conversation around Brexit and the damage it's causing. Instead of denying it, they're now blaming others.
link.medium.com/EKYTk1qT5jb Image
This isn't some off-hand remark by a couple of disgruntled MPs at a fringe Tory Party Conference event.

This is a shift at the highest levels, from the PM on down.

And this new strategy has consequences for Labour, and all of us. Because it means the Brexit pain won't stop.
Indeed, the Brexit pain doesn't need to stop. It's all part of the journey towards a future high-wage, high-productivity Britain.

A fantasy, but one which will be compelling to a significant portion of the Tory base. (Alternative: admit to themselves their 2016 vote was wrong.)
Read 4 tweets
Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡 Profile picture
4 Oct
More and more Tories are jumping onto the "Short-term Brexit pain? Sure - it's a milestone on the way to higher pay." train.

If enough Leavers swallow it (alternative is to admit to themselves they voted wrongly) they'll have cemented that contingent.

Oh, and Lexit is dead.
This approach has several advantages for the Tories:
- The first part, i.e. the bit we see now, matches reality: there are Brexit problems. ("Aha, but they're Brexit-problems-for-a-good-cause...")
- Stuffs Labour. Already impossible to out-Leave the Tories, now double impossible.
Other advantages...
- Once people become invested in the idea, they will accept almost any hardship. Why? Because of the sunk cost. They've already "accepted" the current damage. That's the price of continuing to believe in Brexit. So reversing their thinking becomes ever harder.
Read 21 tweets
Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡 Profile picture
4 Oct
The Tories seem to be pivoting to an "Everyone voted to be poorer, and all we did was implement the result of the vote" Brexit strategy...
It's a controversial move. But it has some merit, from their POV.

It doesn't tell Leavers they were stupid or didn't know what they were voting for. Instead, it's subtle: it forces them to agree to something terrible to avoid admitting to themselves they were wrong about Brexit.
IF Leavers buy into it, then the more everyone else points the finger at everything that's going wrong, the more likely they are to retreat into an even more defensive strategy.

Ultimately: "Of course there are problems. It's Brexit. But it will be worth it in the end."
Read 10 tweets
Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡 Profile picture
3 Oct
Something happened on 1 October that will severely hurt inbound tourism to the UK & damage the business sector too...

As Priti Patel boasts, the Tories binned the use of national ID cards to enter the UK. But an estimated 200 million EU citizens only have ID cards not passports.
School trips, especially, will be a thing of the past.

A national ID card, ubiquitous in most EU countries, will get EU citizens into over 50 countries and territories. (See list below.)

The ONLY exception is the UK. We've slammed the door by demanding passports only.
The final nail in the coffin for school trips is that the Tories also got rid of the "List of Travellers" scheme for non-EU citizens accompanying EU citizens on class trips. So it's now harder for EU citizens to come (they need passports) and much harder for non-EU citizens.
Read 7 tweets
Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡 Profile picture
2 Oct
Trying to figure out where voters stand on Brexit is HARD. There are at least 7 groups of voters:

2016 REFERENDUM
- Leave
- Remain
- Registered, did not vote
- Invalid votes

OTHER
- Joined electoral register since 2016
- Came of voting age since 2016
- Died since 2016
Out of those 7 groups, only one ("Leave") contains a big majority of people who are likely to still favour Brexit.

That's the group that the Tories and Labour seem to be fighting tooth and nail over.

Dead people cannot vote.

That leaves 5 groups almost totally sidelined.
What else do we know?

Well, we know the people who've died are more likely to be old rather than young. And we know more old people than young voted Leave.

We also know that everyone who came of age since 2016 is young. And young people are more likely to be anti-Brexit.
Read 5 tweets
Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡 Profile picture
2 Oct
Priti Patel was boasting about the fact that the UK no longer accepts national ID cards for incoming visitors, only passports.

This chart shows what a mind-blowingly stupid move that was. An estimated 200 million EU citizens don't have passports, only ID cards.

Bye bye tourism.
Here's Priti Patel's original tweet, for posterity.

(Screenshot in case it goes bye bye, just like our tourism sector will...)
Also worth knowing...

On 2 August 2021, the EU launched a single unified national ID standard that will make all new IDs issued even more secure.
Read 4 tweets

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