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Oct 5, 2021 25 tweets 10 min read Read on X
DCA aka Dollar Cost Averaging📚

The most effective tool for a normie to invest

▪️ What is it?
▪️ Why is it so effective?
▪️ How it looks in reality?
▪️ Three types
▪️ When to use DCA & when do not
▪️ DCA out
▪️ Advanced techniques 🧐

1/25
▪️ What is it?

Book explanation:

Dollar-cost averaging (DCA) is an investment strategy in which an investor divides up the total amount to be invested across multiple purchases in an effort to reduce the impact of volatility on the overall purchase

2/25
In my own simple words, the trick is, we ain't trying to catch the precise bottom or the top.

We are merely trying to build an average price at a logical place with multiple buys or sell orders while being very close to it and still gaining immense profits.

3/25
▪️ Why is it so effective?

Because for most people catching the exact bottom or the top is a mission close to impossible.

This way we can get very close to buying the bottom & very close to selling the top and all of that with very little stress. Win-Win.

4/25
Most people don't have the resources to understand how bottoming structures look like.

It's also very hard to handle, both the bottoms & the tops psychologically and actually make the buys & then take the profits.

This method solves all of those problems

5/25
▪️ How it looks in reality?

You set multiple levels of orders, starting at -40% pullback from the past ATH & then you continue with each order at another -5% it goes lower.

In this example, we set 5 orders in which 4 got filled and we made an avg buy price of 34 000$.

6/25
The buying range was going from 39 000 to 26 000$

Considering we used the same amount for buying, i.e. 10 000$ worth of #BTC at each level (4/5), we bought 1,176 #Bitcoin. Our average price is 34 000$

A price most would wish to have these days... Currently at 47% profit

7/25
▪️ Three types

There are three types to do DCA-in/out based on:

1) Percentage
2) Round numbers
3) Time

8/25
1) Percentage-wise

This type we have described in the example above.

You merely layer your orders in a price range you wanna buy. Could be -40% to -80% for example.

2) Round numbers

You set buys at each round number

Can look like this: 40K - 35K - 30K - 25K and so on

9/25
3) Time-wise

In this type, you are not trying to catch the bottom you are simply averaging your price every single time period.

For example, you buy every single week/month or a year.

This method I highly recommend for your pension saving.

10/25
A monthly period is the best for smaller amounts used for pension saving.

Yearly is better for higher investments.

For example, if you own a company and wanna safely store your profits somewhere safe for a longer period of time and avoid inflation. A good one is #Bitcoin

11/25
▪️ When to use DCA & when do not

DCA is a great tool in time-proven markets with upside potential or at the very least in a market with strong fundamental values

It's a bad tool if you wanna buy a depreciative asset or one with no core values. Many $ALTs fall in here

12/25
Let's use #Bitcoin as an example.

We understand its core values, we understand how halving works, and so on and therefore we expect it to continue to grow in Price & Value in time.

In such a market, this is one of the most effective stress-free tools you can use.

13/25
If you use it for an $ALT that will keep on depreciating as there is no demand for it and its values are just a copypasta or something similar, then this tool won't make much sense.

However, it's still better to enter at -40% to -80% pullback than FOMO at the top

14/25
▪️ DCA out

Not only is this a great tool to be buying the bottoms, but it's also a great one to be selling the tops, or very close to them 😉

It works in the same way, as getting in

You set multiple layers of sell orders and make an avg sell price. Then you DCA-in again

15/25
▪️ Advanced techniques

This technique is so simple therefore it's really hard to get some advanced techniques yet it wouldn't be me if I wouldn't tweak it a bit 😉

16/25
a) From where to start layering your bids?

It depends on the market & the cycle we are in. Some pullbacks are gonna be way bigger than others

I highly recommend however to start at -40% to -50% and all the way down to -70% to -90% depending on the market. This one $LUNA

17/25
b) What % size at each level?

Good one is to set a higher bid at your first buying level & then either slowly start decreasing or keep the rest of the other same

The first order can be anything from 25-50% of your desired allocation to secure a position. Spread the rest

18/25
This tool is good if you wanna make sure you have a position in the asset and then keep adding the rest.

Positives: It makes sure you have a big position in the asset

Negatives: Higher avg price

19/25
The reverse scenario is where you start with a small allocation and keep making it bigger as price goes lower

Positives: You get a very big position very close to the bottom

Negatives: If the price doesn't go as deep, your largest orders do not get filled.

20/25
Both are good and the best to be applied at different assets differently.

However, the most important thing is this! Both get you the average buy price close to the bottom and that's all you should care about.

Another example that can be applied. Whichever suit you.

21/25
The same thing can be applied for profit-taking

You start to take a certain % out of the market at each x % it does.

As a normie or even a pro, when we are at a price discovery we do not know how far it can go. Making an avg exit ensures the best exit.

22/25
You do not need to exit with everything you can always leave a moonbag or move some part into a longer-term hold (for many years).

You then apply the same DCA-in strategy to get into the market again when it starts dropping again into that -40 to -90% territory

23/25
This way you can outperform the market with a stress-free ride or get into a new one with a calm mind and good avg price

I highly recommend for most newcomers with less than 1-2 years experience to mainly follow this strategy until they learn about the price behavior more

24/25
I hope you have found this thread valuable and easy to apply.

If you did, as always, please consider sharing it with your friends as they might find it helpful as well and it helps to spread the awareness

Thank you 😉🙌

#DCA #DollarCostAveraging #Strategy #Investment

25/25

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More from @i_am_jackis

Mar 25
Here is the psychological truth about the #Bitcoin / #Crypto market 👇

The vast majority of market participants bought the top in 2021, whether the 1st or the 2nd. The exact price is unimportant for this post

🧵 Silent Read Time: 1 Min, 52 Sec Image
1) A decent portion of them sold the bottom, especially after the #FTX crash

Either from panic selling, multiplied by the fear spread on social media with posts such as:

EXIT ALL MARKETS or THE GREATEST RECESSION since THE GREAT DEPRESSION coming

The others from the greed of.. Image
..selling & buying back cheaper at lower prices

This was a prime example of the market going up thousands of % & yet people losing money on it

Those people are still waiting for a bigger pullback to buy cheap & will continue to do so & miss everything. Again.
Read 10 tweets
Feb 20
You don't wanna miss this #Bitcoin alpha thread 🧵👀

#BTC around 50K is still within a strong value area

Lots of people sidelined, waiting for a bigger correction will miss out

Data from Financial Advisors across the US are suggesting big future upside

1/20

Read below👇 Image
First of all, I did expect we would get the upside we got from the 40-45K range, but after, I thought we would get a deeper pullback at some point to like 32K or so

I do not think that anymore

Below is the original thread worth your time to read through

One of the reasons I don't think so anymore is the Weekly Market Structure

In any chart, remember, that for the HTF directional bias, the most important tool is the W1 MS

With the latest move, we got ourselves a new HL & HH confirming that Image
Read 22 tweets
Jan 13
BIG #BITCOIN ALPHA UPDATE 13/1/2024 🧵

No emotional bias, just truth bombs full of data & mainly my own context ✅

Both bullish & bearish arguments - HTF to LTF

Hit like & Bookmark to keep this plan in the back of your mind

Let's get to it 👇

1/25Image
We start HTF, scale in & create the valuable context 👇

So my thesis has been & is still the same throughout the whole of 2023, that we move above the so important psychological level of March 22 high, sitting at 48K, distribute above & pullback


Image
So the 48K level caused a reaction as expected but imo we move higher still to distribute & there are multiple reasons for it

1) We spent 500+ days accumulating sub 30K, such energy simply doesn't get distributed in 30 days. At minimum 120+ days

Read 25 tweets
Aug 10, 2023
🧵 Big thread on INTEREST RATES around the Western economies & their future projections & implications on the markets

Everyone's focus is on the FED funds rate but by understanding all of them we get a much clearer picture of where the FED is heading 💡

Let's dive in 👇

1/22 Image
As you can see from the picture, central banks in Western economies tend to move the interest rates on average in a similar trend

We could even call it a consensus

However, some are frontrunners & some laggards and by comparing them all, we can get a general idea of the trend Image
Each economy has its own factors & issues that come to play in each country of course, which is the reason why we see some deviations here & there on a lower quarterly or yearly scale. But the general trend stays

So why is it that they all move together on average? 👇
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May 24, 2023
What I often see people doing wrong is waiting for that "One last" - 🧵 THREAD - 1/9

- "One last" draw on liquidity
- "One last" equal lows sweep
- "One last" capitulation
- "One last" shakeout
- "One last" - you name it ✍️ Image
For example, one (in)famous trader called ICT kept waiting for BTC to sweep the 2015 HTF equal lows

He has been waiting for the #Bitcoin crash and the sweep since then

It has never come to this day Image
In 2018 the situation was very similar. People kept waiting for lower. For that FVG/Inefficiency fill. For that prior ATH retest

Still waiting Image
Read 10 tweets
Feb 18, 2023
RISK to REWARD / COST to BENEFIT 📚

🧵 In-depth thread about this phenomenon, that can be used in various aspects of our lives. Not just in trading

This will IMPROVE your life 👇

1/25
Risk to reward, in shortcut RRR or just RR, is an amazing concept that we use every day without even realizing it

But it is exactly that realization, which you will learn here, that will help you identify & use it effectively

2/
This concept is mainly to realize that everything we do in our lives and every decision we take involves risk/cost

The RR ratio then calculates how much reward there is for such risk

It can also be described mathematically as 0,2:1 / 2:1 / 5:1 and so on

3/
Read 25 tweets

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