1/ $CME looks interesting in here. For PMs who are looking for ways to hedge long duration equity exposures against risk of rising rates there are not many high quality businesses available (balance sheet financials and energy not really top-of-mind for many).
2/ $CME is the monopoly US interest rate derivatives exchange (as well as dominant positions in commodity futures markets) and has strong operating leverage to an increase in US bond futures/ Eurodollar trades undertaken to hedge against inflation risks.
3/ Stock price fell 16% from June 2021 peak to recent $185 share price low and looks to be back on the hunt for higher levels. Not obviously cheap by any means at 23x EV/EBIT, 28x PE.
4/ But earnings power under a higher volume environment (bond futures trading volumes have been supressed for years due to ZIRP) is much higher. Worth putting on the radar IMHO.
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1/ Piper survey 10,000 US teens - some interesting stats on social media usage: Instagram continues to lead monthly usage, although falling, TikTok gaining. $SNAP remains favourite, improving its lead, TikTok second then Instagram 3rd favourite, losing 2 points.
2/ $PINS gender skew among teens higher than I'd have thought - 90% skew. TikTok 64% skewed to females. Discord most skewed to men at 77% followed by Twitter (67% male skew) then $FB (65% male skew). $SNAP most balanced gender usage.
1/ For those interested in bitcoin miners, I had a call with @bigsuey IR of Hut 8 $HUT which was very constructive. I have a follow-up call with the CFO next week so will post up any clarification points but for now, the key takeaways are:
2/ $HUT's recent capital raise fully funds their buildout to 6 EH. They did have a C$500 shelf stock offering filing but recent raise plus earlier one now means that's nearly fully used up (big contrast to $BITF who have their entire C$500 ATM shelf overhanging).
3/ I was curious why they suddenly went from no big miner purchase announcements despite peers announcing big deals and what changed their mind mid this year and there were a few observations: a) CEO Jaime Leverton only took over in December 2020 and so took some time to do…
1/ Bernstein piece out today is interesting — they compare the gross vs the net take rates of $BABA vs $PDD. Thread below:
2/ The gross take rates are similar while Alibaba adjusted net take rate (revenue minus sales and marketing spend as a % of transacted GMV) runs at 5% vs $PDD used to run below 2% before a big spike in the most recent quarter to 4% (and PDD have said not to expect this level…
3/ …of profitability to recur as they intend to spend more in H2 21).
1/ Some thoughts on $SPOT after reflecting on Q2 21 results.
Summary thoughts:
I think the MAU miss has had a disproportionately negative impact on the share price, as it was the second quarter in a row of MAU coming in below expectations.
2/ The 22% yoy growth in MAUs they did achieve given some self-inflicted email signup issues and an emerging market Covid impact whereby they fully pulled back from marketing spend in India which impacted signups is by no means a terrible outcome.
3/ This chart shows MAUs quarterly since Q1 2017 (Q3 and Q4 2021 numbers are mid-point of co guidance). There does not look to be anything sinister going on with this trend:
1/ Re $SPOT, helpful and positive take-aways from the IPO presentation for a digital label called Believe (believemusic.com), French domiciled and run but with strong market positions in a large number of geographies.
2/ Over time, they plan to be in all the 130-140 geographies that $SPOT are/ will be in.
Key to this business is they are positioned for a move to a digital music world, which they see fully playing out globally by 2030 and within 5 years in Europe.
3/ This is a helpful reminder of quite how powerful a secular tailwind $SPOT benefits from over the next many years.